澳门六合彩

If ISIS can strike in Paris, then it can surely strike in Paktika or Peshawar鈥攑arts of the world with entrenched, enabling environments for extremists. It was in this region, before the post-9/11 U.S.-led military intervention in Afghanistan and before the drone war in Pakistan, where the biggest and baddest international terror groups enjoyed safe havens.

Already, ISIS has its formal expansion into what it describes as 鈥淜horasan鈥濃�攁 region encompassing Afghanistan and Pakistan. ISIS also for a deadly attack on Shia Ismailis, a religious minority, in Pakistan last May. In recent months, in Afghanistan鈥檚 Nangarhar province, several hundred disaffected Taliban militants, unhappy about their organization鈥檚 infighting and demoralized by the death of Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar, have defected to ISIS. Meanwhile, , the Pakistani terror group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi鈥攍ike ISIS, a vicious Sunni Muslim sectarian jihadist outfit鈥攈as dispatched members to fight alongside ISIS in Iraq.

Additionally, ISIS appears to be making direct appeals to Pakistanis in its recruitment pitches. In its proposed prisoner exchanges, it has the name of Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani woman imprisoned on terror charges in Texas. Although Siddiqui is unknown in most countries, including in much of the Muslim world, she is a cause c茅l猫bre in Pakistan.

What has been lacking until now are deep, formal links between ISIS central operations in Syria and Iraq and ISIS-aligned fighters in Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, with ISIS now actively expanding its global profile, the group could seek to bring more strategic direction鈥攁s well as arms, money, and manpower鈥攖o those ISIS-aligned fighters in the region.

But here is the good news: ISIS will struggle mightily to make major inroads in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, and it certainly will not be in a position to seize large expanses of territory. There is little chance that ISIS can do in Pakistan and Afghanistan what it has done in Iraq and Syria.

There is little chance that ISIS can do in Pakistan and Afghanistan what it has done in Iraq and Syria.

Consider, first of all, that sectarian divides鈥攚hich helped fueled the rise and expansion of ISIS in Syria and Iraq鈥攁re not nearly as sharp or violent in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan do experience alarming levels of attacks on religious minorities, but these conflicts pale in comparison to the sectarian violence in Syria and Iraq. Additionally, governance is not nearly as sectarian in nature. Say what you will about the Pakistani and Afghan governments, but they do not run virtual sectarian dictatorships, as former Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki did for several years.

Consider as well that most militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan are aligned with al-Qaeda, ISIS鈥檚 rival. Al-Qaeda retains a sizable operational presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan, contrary to President Obama鈥檚 infamous last year that al-Qaeda central has been reduced to a 鈥渏ayvee鈥� squad of militants. Recall the recent that last month, U.S. forces had come across鈥攁nd destroyed鈥攚hat may have been the largest-ever al-Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan. And in 2014, al-Qaeda announced the formation of a new affiliate in South Asia.

Most South Asian militant groups鈥攊ncluding al-Qaeda鈥攈ad expressed their firm allegiance to Mullah Omar, and regarded him as the Amir-ul-Momineen, or 鈥淐ommander of the Faithful.鈥� When ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi first boasted of his caliphate last year, militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan and renewed their allegiance to Omar. Significantly, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to Omar鈥檚 successor, Mullah Mansoor.

One more feature of the Afghanistan-Pakistan militant environment that puts ISIS at odds with South Asian jihadists is sect. ISIS is Salafist, and rejects the legitimacy of other sects of Sunni Islam鈥攊ncluding Deobandism, the sect of most South Asian militant outfits. This all makes for a hostile militant milieu for ISIS. It would not be welcomed with open arms.

Finally, in Afghanistan and especially Pakistan, security forces are determined to preempt any potential ISIS advances. Pakistan鈥檚 powerful military may nurture ties with select militant groups, but it wants nothing to do with ISIS. Afghanistan鈥檚 army is not nearly as powerful as Pakistan鈥檚, though President Obama鈥檚 decision to halt the U.S. troop withdrawal ensures a supportive American counterterrorism presence at least through 2017. This year, U.S. drone strikes killed ISIS鈥檚 top two representatives (former Taliban leaders appointed by ISIS central) in Afghanistan.

The bottom line is that ISIS will not extend its caliphate deep into Afghanistan and Pakistan. In these countries, ISIS is much more likely to blow up territory than to seize it. This problem is bad enough鈥攁nd not dissimilar to what the future may hold for Europe and even the United States鈥攂ut it is nothing resembling what ISIS has done in Syria and Iraq.

Could the calculus change? Unfortunately, yes. A nightmare scenario is that Baghdadi dies, and al-Zawahiri seeks鈥攁nd successfully achieves鈥攔econciliation with ISIS. This is a perfectly plausible scenario. Baghdadi could well be blown away in an airstrike, and Zawahiri鈥攚ho has 鈥攃ould well extend an olive branch.

There is nothing more terrifying than the prospect of a reunited al-Qaeda and ISIS. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, this would generate all kinds of cooperative opportunities with the region鈥檚 many militant groups鈥攁nd establish a formidable tag-team jihadist juggernaut.

Still, for now, we can be assured that ISIS will not be flying its flags across great expanses of Afghan and Pakistani territory鈥攁nd yet the chances of ISIS-sponsored terror strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan are high. This is a troubling thought for Afghans already suffering through a revitalized Taliban insurgency, and for violence-ravaged Pakistanis enjoying a rare respite from terror attacks amid a robust army countermilitancy offensive in the country鈥檚 tribal belt. It is also a troubling thought for the world as a whole, as one of the most fearsome terror groups in decades continues to extend its murderous tentacles far and wide.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.