澳门六合彩

Ukraine has made significant strategic gains in the Black Sea and views the region as a growing area of focus. Despite not having a sizable surface fleet, Ukraine has been able to effectively combat the Russian navy鈥檚 ships to the point where the Russian Black Sea fleet moved ships away from Crimea for safety, allowing more secure passage of grain shipments. With recent Western aid packages to Ukraine lessening in frequency, more funds and attention should be paid to supporting this theater where Ukraine has proven especially effective. Bolstering Ukraine鈥檚 capabilities in the Black Sea will provide a better bargaining chip at the negotiating table. In addition, western navies should take note to learn from Russia's shortcomings and Ukraine's successes in the Black Sea.听

听Since 2014, Ukraine has not had a sizable surface fleet. This has entirely to do with Russia鈥檚 illegal annexation of Crimea and seizure of听all major surface ships in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, representing about 75% of its surface fleet. The move also a treaty that leased the base between the two countries originally signed in 1997, with a 2010 extension for 2042. This action, along with the听 in 2018, seriously degraded the Ukrainian navy before the full-scale invasion by听 Russia in 2022. Since the outbreak of the war, Ukraine has to have sunk or disabled a third of Russia鈥檚 Black Sea Fleet, including attacks on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters based in Sevastopol, forcing the rest of the fleet to move eastward and out of range of Ukrainian missiles. This is primarily due to the use of drones and missiles fired from the mainland, rather than ship-to-ship action, which has not been a factor in the war thus far. These attacks have occurred concurrently with Ukraine 听a grain shipment corridor in the Black Sea through Odesa and hugging the Danube River delta as Ukraine looks to continue to send its products to market.听

Bolstering Ukraine鈥檚 capabilities in the Black Sea will provide a better bargaining chip at the negotiating table.

Black Sea grain exports: Vital lifeline for Ukraine鈥檚 economy听

听Just as the Black Sea has proven to be a critical arena in Ukraine鈥檚 defense strategy,听 keeping grain shipments flowing has become crucial for sustaining Ukraine鈥檚 wartime economy.听 For decades, this 鈥渂readbasket of Europe鈥� has relied on its Black Sea ports to help its produce reach the global market: in 2021, grain and other agricultural products represented of Ukraine鈥檚 total $69 billion in exports. While trade fell sharply immediately following Russia鈥檚 invasion, the summer of 2022 offered hope as Russia and Ukraine signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey that allowed maritime grain exports to resume safely. Bolstered by overland 鈥渟olidarity lanes鈥� established by the EU, the agreement restored a major source of revenue for Ukrainian farmers. This reprieve only lasted until the summer of 2023, however. Russia abruptly and unilaterally withdrew its support, claiming that Ukraine was exploiting the deal for military purposes.听

Ukrainian grain exports across the Black Sea have continued since the grain deal's collapse, largely thanks to the country鈥檚 military successes in the Black Sea. Drawing on its on Russia鈥檚 Black Sea Fleet that have forced the end of the Russian blockade, Ukraine has begun using its southern ports to send grain ships along the coastline of Romania and Bulgaria, where the relatively shallow waters prohibit Russian submarine operations. Although this new corridor has allowed the to remain consistent compared to when the grain deal was in place, the fate of Ukraine鈥檚 economy is still predicated on the continuation of aid deliveries from the West and its own military鈥檚 ability to hold off the Russian navy in the Black Sea.听

Western support and lessons learned听

More Western resources should be allocated to combat the bulk of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Increased support for Ukraine in this arena has long-term benefits: it would weaken Moscow鈥檚 hold over the Black Sea, its geostrategic position more broadly, and degrade its ability to harass grain shipping vital to Ukraine鈥檚 economic health. Although recent aid packages have been for the fighting around the Donbas and in the east, and despite Ukraine鈥檚 recent strategic gains following its into the Kursk region of Russia, the Black Sea should not be ignored. Any subsequent military aid packages, whether from the US Congress or frozen Russian assets in the EU, should provide for continued support of this theater.听

Drawing on its strikes on Russia鈥檚 Black Sea Fleet that have forced the end of the Russian blockade, Ukraine has begun using its southern ports to send grain ships along the coastline of Romania and Bulgaria, where the relatively shallow waters prohibit Russian submarine operations.

Western navies can learn from the successes and failures that both Ukraine and Russia have demonstrated in this region. Developing effective anti-drone countermeasures that are both cost-effective and practical,听 as well as investing in naval drone capability will be for future naval strategy. Despite not possessing a floating navy of its own, Ukraine has managed to sink or cripple many large surface ships, forcing the rest of the fleet to relocate. This has听in large part due to Ukraine-built Neptune missiles, but also kamikaze-style sea drones that have successfully larger conventional Russian warships, resulting in at least three being sunk, and others damaged. This shows both the hubris and inefficacy of the Russian fleet in adapting to this new style of warfare. Supporting Ukraine in the Black Sea will strengthen its position in this contested theater, offering a better position in Ukraine鈥檚 favor for seeking a favorable peace with Russia.听