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Background: The Mexican government announced plans to phase out imports of genetically modified (GM) corn and glyphosate shortly after President López Obrador (AMLO) took office in 2019, aiming to enhance food self-reliance and promote agroecological practices. The initial decree called for a complete phaseout by 2024, while a revised decree in February 2023 extends the glyphosate phaseout, bans GM corn in flour and tortillas for human consumption, and outlines a gradual replacement of GM corn in industrial use and animal feed as non-GM options become available. In August 2023, the United States filed a complaint under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), arguing that scientific evidence did not support ²Ñ±ð³æ¾±³¦´Ç’s gradual ban. In February 2024, AMLO proposed a constitutional reform to prohibit the use and cultivation of GM corn in Mexico, aligning with a broader agenda to protect the country’s agricultural heritage, biodiversity, and food sovereignty.

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Assessment: The proposed reform cites concerns about the risks of transgenic crops. However, global organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) have found GM crops to be equally safe as non-GM crops for human consumption.

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Reform Proposals: Main Intended Changes

• Supporting small agricultural workers. The reform promotes sustainable farming practices that do not rely on genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The support for organic farming and other environmentally friendly practices intends to align with the government’s broader sustainability goals. The reform proposal promotes and favors traditional agricultural knowledge and practices used in Mexico for centuries.
• Preserving biodiversity. A central element of the reform is protecting ²Ñ±ð³æ¾±³¦´Ç’s natural crop varieties. The proposed ban on GM corn is framed as a safeguard against potential contamination by GM strains.
• Recognizing corn as an element of national identity: The ban on GM corn aims to protect ²Ñ±ð³æ¾±³¦´Ç’s sovereignty by safeguarding native corn varieties integral to the country’s heritage.

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Will the reform affect trade and investment opportunities? Yes. The U.S. is ²Ñ±ð³æ¾±³¦´Ç’s largest corn supplier, exporting over 15 million metric tons of corn annually, 90% of which is GM, totaling $5.39 billion in 2023. Banning GM crops could harm biodiversity, increase food prices, and impact public health and low-income families. No consensus or scientific evidence supports the idea that the ban on GM corn in Mexico is an effective measure to protect domestic production.

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Consequences for Mexico and the US-MX bilateral relationship

• USMCA violations & trade disputes: The reform will impose trade restrictions without proper scientific evidence, which could potentially conflict with several USMCA provisions. Chapter 2 (National Treatment and Market Access) specifically prohibits arbitrary restrictions on trade in goods, and Chapter 9 (Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures) states that sanitary and phytosanitary measures must be based on scientific recommendations.
• Reduction of agricultural trade: ²Ñ±ð³æ¾±³¦´Ç’s agriculture productivity may decrease, leading to higher costs for farmers and consumers, especially if non-GM corn cannot meet demand or becomes more expensive to produce. The reform would impact agricultural exports and imports to North America, potentially leading to the loss of agricultural jobs and threatening food security in Mexico.
• US Economic loss: If Mexico were to ban the import of GM corn, the economic impact could be substantial. As previosuly mentioned, the United States exports around 15 million metric tons of corn to Mexico yearly, nearly 90% of which is genetically modified. In 2023, these exports were worth approximately $5.39 billion.

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USMCA Panel: The proposed reform should be examined in the context of Mexico's "Tortilla Corn Ban" from 2019 (see Background). In response, the U.S. filed a formal complaint under the USMCA in August 2023, leading to the establishment of a dispute panel. The U.S. contends that Mexico's restrictions violate trade rules and lack scientific support, a claim Mexico denies. Mexico argues that these measures are crucial for food sovereignty and clarifies that restrictions apply only to white corn for human consumption, allowing other uses like animal feed. Public hearings took place in June 2024, with a final decision anticipated after November 2024.