澳门六合彩

How many ISIS prisoners are being held in Syria by the Syrian Democratic Forces? How many are locals? How many are foreigners? How many have been repatriated to their country of origin? How does the judicial system deal with them? How many has the SDF executed?

The SDF holds between 8,000 and 9,000 prisoners, and possibly more. Between聽2,000 and聽3,000聽are聽Iraqi; between聽4,000 and聽5,000聽are聽Syrians. Somewhat less than 2,000聽are from a聽third country. A few hundred聽prisoners from聽third countries have been repatriated. Many of the remaining聽prisoners聽are from Europe,聽where聽there have been聽few repatriations, except two to Italy and some to Russia. The聽SDF has run low-level Syrian ISIS fighters鈥攑erhaps聽a few聽hundred鈥攖hrough the local judicial system in northeast Syria. Some聽have been聽released to聽local聽communities;聽some聽have been聽sentenced.聽The local judicial capacity聽has聽problems. In聽2019, about half of the Iraqis held聽by the SDF were sent back to Iraq,聽but various problems have blocked a second tranche. I am unaware of any executions聽of ISIS fighters by the SDF.

How secure are the SDF prisons? Is there a danger that the prisons are breeding grounds for a new generation? How has the SDF tried rehabilitation鈥攁nd how successfully? How many fighters and families of fighters have been reintegrated back into their communities? What are the challenges of reintegration鈥攅conomically, socially and politically? Have any returned to jihadi activities?聽

Relatively secure, as shown by聽the聽lack of breakouts by ISIS fighters聽during the chaotic Turkish incursion in October 2019. Both the prisons and the al聽Hol camp for ISIS family members are certainly breeding grounds. The聽SDF has tried rehabilitation of local Syrian fighters,聽but again聽the聽numbers are just in聽the聽hundreds.聽

How many ISIS prisoners does Iraq hold? How many are locals? How many are foreigners? How many have been repatriated to their country of origin? How does the judicial system deal with them? How many has Iraq executed?

Iraq holds聽thousands,聽including roughly 2,000 prisoners sent by the SDF in Syria聽to Iraq. Repatriation from Iraq has gone somewhat better as it has an internationally recognized government to deal with聽the issue. The聽Iraqi judicial system is generally harsh with ISIS fighters,聽and some have been executed.

How secure are the Iraqi prisons? Is there a danger that the prisons are breeding grounds for a new generation? How has Iraq tried rehabilitation鈥攁nd how successfully? How many fighters and families of fighters have been reintegrated back into their communities? What are the challenges of reintegration鈥攅conomically, socially and politically? Have any returned to jihadi activities? 聽

Iraqi prisons are聽relatively secure, given聽the聽absence of major outbreaks. But聽they are聽not as good as the SDF facilities. I鈥檓 unaware of聽any聽significant Iraqi rehabilitation聽of ISIS fighters. Iraq does聽not聽have聽a history of successful rehabilitation.聽Jihadi聽fighters who are released often return to ISIS聽or comparable groups.

How many other ISIS family members are also held in Syria? Where? Under whose control? And how many are estimated to have escaped?

Almost 70,000聽family members are held聽in al Hol. Only a small number have escaped. Some聽have been聽allowed to return to聽their聽Syrian communities. Almost half聽of the 70,000聽are Iraqi. Despite negotiations聽between聽the聽SDF and the Iraqi government, administrative and other issues have blocked significant transfers. There have only been a few official transfers of family members as well as informal 鈥渕ovement鈥� of family members.

Is ISIS recruiting in these camps? How? And how successfully? With what goal? 聽

Absolutely, ISIS is engaged in聽indoctrination and presumably preliminary recruitment聽in the camps. The goal is to form a new generation of ISIS leaders and fighters.

What are the dangers of a new generation being radicalized in the camps? Are there any tangible indicators?

The dangers are manageable, assuming that the overall capabilities of the coalition to defeat ISIS, the SDF, and the Iraqi military are maintained. The indicators would be any major disruption in Iraq or Syria that leads to one of two situations: First, the departure of the United States and others in the coalition. Or second, major conflict between Sunni Arabs and Iran or its allies. Either could lead to a rapid spread of ISIS ideology, recruits, and eventually terrorist capabilities.

Are the wives and children of ISIS fighters trying to create mini-ISIS caliphates in the camps? How?

Yes. They are engaged in the usual violence, intimidation and indoctrination of people already well-prepped for such indoctrination聽because they lived聽in聽areas formerly ruled by聽ISIS.

What are the prospects that ISIS or a successor group could carve out a caliphate in the Middle East again?

A physical聽caliphate like聽the one聽ISIS ran between 2014 and 2019 is highly unlikely.聽But a聽major terrorist movement rising to a major insurgency, such as聽al Qaeda in Iraq between聽2004聽and聽2007, is聽quite possible under聽the聽right conditions. 聽