澳门六合彩

Moldova鈥檚 referendum on its future in the EU was a nail-biter until the very last moment. On election night, president Maia Sandu held an emergency press conference stating the country鈥檚 democracy faced an 鈥渦nprecedented assault by foreign forces.鈥� In the end, the overwhelming support from the diaspora votes managed to turn the result to 50.39% in favor鈥揳 relief for the pro-EU camp. However, as European leaders congratulate Moldova on its resolve against Russian propaganda, such a thin margin is a weak endorsement of the current government鈥檚 vision. What does this mean for Moldova鈥檚 European future?聽

Moldova applied for EU membership together with Ukraine in February 2022. Four months later, it was granted candidate status. Since then, there has been steady progress in its accession path, with the country聽 formal accession negotiations in June 2024. For a country that has been severely impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, joining the EU has become the raison d鈥櫭猼re during Sandu鈥檚 presidency. Sunday鈥檚 referendum was part of this strategy鈥搕o enshrine the goal of EU membership into Moldova鈥檚 constitution.聽

Ahead of the elections, polling聽 support of over 60% for the government鈥檚 proposal. But while Moldova鈥檚 accession progress has been celebrated by Brussels and domestic political elites, the pro-EU vote was carried primarily by Moldovans living abroad. According to the聽, domestic support for the referendum proposal was low (only around 45%, with the rest opposing it), with the breakaway regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia聽 the most resistant. On the other hand, almost 77% of Moldovans living abroad voted in favor of EU membership; many are already benefiting from living and working in the EU. The size of this group, collectively, making up around 15% of the electorate, was enough to tip the scales鈥搘hile also showing the wide disparity in views between Moldovans living at home and abroad.

The razor-thin final margin poses questions about Russia鈥檚 ability to influence public opinion and voting behavior. Moldova鈥檚 media space has long聽 by pro-Russian narratives, but the overtness of influence operations reached new heights when Moldovan police聽 a vote-buying scheme in which pro-Kremlin forces bribed 130,000 people to vote against EU membership and for pro-Russian presidential candidates. Last year, Russian foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov even issued direct threats, saying that Moldova would聽 if it continues down its path of western integration. It is difficult to estimate how much these actions influenced the final results, but they likely played a significant role in the wide discrepancy between polling and the actual vote tallies. It also points towards a clear capability and willingness by Russia聽to聽 to directly聽interfere in foreign elections. Though efforts to flip the results fell short this time around, the threat should not be underestimated going forward.

While the nuances behind the vote against EU membership are still unclear, it nevertheless demonstrates that Moldova鈥檚 European path cannot be taken for granted. Since the country applied for EU membership, polling has聽 steady support for European integration across Moldovan society (63-64%). This has instilled confidence in EU officials about the appeal of EU membership compared to closer ties with Russia. However, Moldova鈥檚 path to EU membership depends not only on reforms and the efforts of its political elites, but also on public support. Evidently, a significant number of Moldovans seem either susceptible to Russian anti-EU narratives or do not really see Moldova鈥檚 future as closely aligned with the West. This is something EU leaders need to recognize instead of blaming the narrow margin solely on Russian meddling.

The final result is nevertheless a positive signal for Moldova鈥檚 future in the EU, safeguarding this strategic objective against future political changes. What lies ahead are the second round of Presidential elections, as well as next year鈥檚 Parliamentary elections. Both are consequential for Moldova's future European path, and both are under threat from Russian hybrid activities. It is not inconceivable that a coalition more critical toward European integration could take power after June 2025, potentially bringing the process to a halt. If that does happen, the EU needs to be prepared to manage expectations, and be transparent about the challenges and demands of the merit-based EU accession process.聽

Going further, the EU must better account for the threats and obstacles posed by Russia in Moldova. Much has been discussed about Russian threat perception of NATO expansion, but the results in Moldova show that EU enlargement is also a thorn in Russia鈥檚 side. In the coming months,聽 Moldova鈥檚 resilience against foreign interference should be a priority鈥搒omething both the EU and the US can play a role in improving. In the long term, Moldova must also address its deep-rooted economic and structural problems: despite seeking closer ties with the EU, President Sandu and her Party of Action and Solidarity led government has failed to significantly improve the economic situation or tackle institutional corruption. Proactively addressing these challenges will be crucial to maintaining support for European integration amidst external Russian pressures and fulfill the strategic objectives of integrating Moldova and the region more broadly into the EU.聽