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The use of artificial intelligence is expanding and, as many have predicted, AI is increasingly prominent in politics. In such countries as Argentina or Turkey, campaign managers have deployed AI to boost their candidate or to smear the opponent. Meanwhile, in Russia, where elections are a highly orchestrated affair, political managers are using AI to discredit antiwar activists and influential political 茅migr茅s.听

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With at least听 planning to hold national elections in 2024, representing almost half the world鈥檚 population, the risk of 鈥�,鈥� as one analyst has put it, through the use of AI-generated and more conventional deep fake productions is disturbingly high.

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AI-Driven Electoral Politics: What 2023 Can Teach Us

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Argentina. In the run-up to Argentina鈥檚 October 2023 presidential elections, during what is now known as the听, competing teams employed AI techniques to create images and videos for promotion and to launch attacks on each other.听

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One of the candidates running for president, Sergio Massa, had his team听create a video featuring his main rival, Javier Milei,听explaining the hypothetical revenues that could be realized from the sale of human organs and suggesting that for this reason, parents could consider having children as a 鈥渓ong-term investment.鈥� Despite the video being explicitly labeled as AI-generated, it was quickly shared on different platforms without disclaimers.

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AI-generated images of Argentina鈥檚 presidential election campaigns have been viewed more than听. Despite this smear campaign, Milei, a self-described far-right 鈥渁narcho capitalist,鈥� won.

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Turkey.听Another serious election-related example comes from Turkey鈥檚 2023 presidential campaign. In the run-up to the elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an鈥檚 staff shared a video depicting his main rival, Kemal Kili莽daro臒lu, being听 by the Kurdistan Workers鈥� Party, a designated terrorist group. The video was clearly fabricated but was widely circulated.听

Erdo臒an won the election. Of course, his victory owed to much more than a single deep fake video.听He used more traditional means of eliminating unwanted rivals from contention and exercising control over media to secure his victory. However, employing deep fakes, along with leveraging political power, against opponents could end their political career within minutes.听

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AI Uses in an Authoritarian Context听

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Russia is an interesting case in this new brave world of political AI. The Kremlin does not need AI-driven campaigns because it manages the procedures it calls 鈥渆lections鈥� using mostly traditional authoritarian means of political repression and control over would-be candidates鈥� access to the ballot. But Russia鈥檚 political managers do increasingly use deep fakes against President Putin鈥檚 political opponents.听

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One favorite technique of the Kremlin鈥檚 propaganda machine is to create a flood of alternative, and changing, narratives to erode trust. At the outset of the full-scale invasion against Ukraine, hackers uploaded a deepfake of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to a popular Ukrainian website. The deepfake supposedly showed Zelensky urging the Ukrainian army to surrender. Even a poorly made deepfake video published at a time when information warfare is at its peak may add uncertainty and play into the hands of the Kremlin aiming to destabilize Ukraine鈥檚 civil society.

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Recent events show that it is easy to use deep fakes to compromise political opponents. The Russian writer Dmitry Bykov and the Russian-Georgian writer Boris Akunin, both of whom hold avowed antiwar views, recently revealed that pro-Kremlin pranksters who claimed to represent the head of the office of the president of Ukraine Andriy Yermak had engaged in such tactics against them.听

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In conversation, both writers proclaimed their support of Ukraine, and as a result, publishing houses in Russia and stores听 their books.听

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The actor Artur Smolyaninov also reported having a video conference with what turned out to be a deep fake representation of the head of Zelensky鈥檚 office. The actor emphasized that the deep fake of Andriy Yermak looked very convincing, commenting, 鈥淥n Zoom, you see an absolutely real person: he talks like Yermak, has gestures like Yermak鈥攅verything, just like Yermak.鈥�

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This is perhaps the first taste of how authoritarians can use new tools for the age-old end of maintaining power. Arguably, it is more important that AI may become a game-changer for elections in democratic or hybrid regimes than in authoritarian ones. Let us not forget that 2024 is a year when half the world鈥檚 population will have elections, including the United States, Indonesia, India, and many others in Europe. A perfectly timed deep fake video could seriously mess with the elections.听

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How AI Can Erode Trust in Democratic Institutions听

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Language models can create tons of unique messages for various social media platforms, for texting or emailing personalized messages to millions of voters. AI models can use reinforcement learning techniques to generate series of messages that become more effective at swaying your vote, following you across different websites and social media with targeted messages and ads.听

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In this machine-learning approach, the AI model tries different methods, absorbs feedback on what works best, and refines its tactics to achieve a specific goal in the most effective way. The fact that it amplifies mistakes and provides听 is not a problem since its main goal is to influence your vote, not to give you accurate information.

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Another technique is the psychochat, whereby candidates create and use digital avatars to appear to interact directly with voters. There already exists an example of such a psychochat, built around psychologist Martin Seligman鈥檚 personality and based on his writings. A bot named 鈥淎sk Martin鈥� is a talking chatbot whose responses potentially听.听

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Psychochats might become the next trend for candidates as they create virtual versions of themselves to engage with potential voters, address their concerns, and mirror their beliefs. Perhaps in just a few months everyone will have the opportunity to chat with a digital version of Donald Trump.

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If the staff of one presidential candidate decides to use AI in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, other candidates鈥� teams will assuredly follow suit. The winner might be determined by the effectiveness of their AI strategy, focusing on the use of technology and voter manipulation to gain votes rather than on addressing genuine voters鈥� interests.

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Risks and Regulation

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Researchers have been worried about the听 for a long time. This technology has the potential to mislead voters by contributing to the spread of disinformation through social media and raising questions about the validity of information people are exposed to on a daily basis. In the past year alone, deep fakes have become so realistic that听 of survey respondents could not tell the difference between real and manipulated videos, with the proportion significantly higher among the older generation.

There are few ways to protect oneself against misleading AI-generated disinformation campaigns. One way to reduce the effect might be to enhance privacy protections while online. Disinformation campaigns depend heavily on accessing numerous amounts of personal data to target individuals, create personalized messages to manipulate viewers鈥� beliefs, and track and target individuals. Denying the machine access to any part of this information can significantly reduce its effectiveness.

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The European Parliament and the U.S. Federal Election Commission are taking steps in the direction of regulating deep fakes in political messages and advertising campaigns. However, they are not there yet.

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Even as people lose trust in public institutions and politicians, tech companies and social media companies are cutting back their moderation departments鈥攖hus creating a听. A leading example is Elon Musk, who, after purchasing Twitter, decided to restore several accounts, including those of Donald Trump, Kanye West, and Alex Jones, that had previously been banned for spreading conspiracy theories and antisemitism. Now that social media platform, renamed by Musk X, has turned into a swamp flooded with disinformation excused by Musk as exemplifying 鈥渇reedom of speech.鈥�

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X is not alone in this. Other social media platforms also struggle with controlling the spread of hoaxes, deception, and false narratives. Companies like Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, and Google听 that political ads must disclose whether they use AI, though nonpaying accounts that put up AI-generated images or narratives are not required to disclose.

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In an era in which deep fakes, disinformation campaigns, and conspiracy theories are getting more sophisticated, the real challenge might be holding the belief that an objective truth still exists.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.