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Argentina and Colombia, a Tale of Two Lockdowns

COVID-19 hit Latin America , with the region accounting for of global deaths from the coronavirus. In response, governments adopted a diverse set of strategies, including in Brazil, Mexico and Nicaragua. By contrast, Argentina and Colombia took early and decisive action by imposing strict national quarantines. Although initially effective, the economically painful lockdowns ultimately failed to stem a recent surge in virus cases and deaths. Colombia now has the world鈥檚 -highest number of cases, and Argentina, the . As a result, policymakers in both countries face a difficult balancing act, attempting to bring about economic recovery, and prevent social and political unrest, while keeping the virus at bay.

Testing State Capacity

Lockdowns are a blunt instrument, and only part of the toolkit for controlling an epidemic. The World Health Organization has emphasized the importance of extensive contact-tracing for controlling the spread of the coronavirus. However, and tracing are complex and costly, and depend on state capacity that is hard to build on short notice. Chile leads the region in testing, while Colombia and Argentina far behind, despite efforts to widen access to testing beyond symptomatic individuals, as Colombian President Iv谩n Duque highlighted in recent remarks to the Pan American Health Organization.

In turn, these low testing rates make contact-tracing a nearly insurmountable challenge. In response, Argentina and Colombia have introduced contact-tracing apps to identify cases and permit self-monitoring.

The Argentine contact-tracing app is for and visitors to the country. It self-diagnosis and sends a user鈥檚 name, identification number and phone number to the authorities for geographical tracing. Over people have downloaded the app. Colombia鈥檚 contact-tracing app also geographic monitoring of the virus鈥檚 spread, tracing a user鈥檚 symptoms and quarantine compliance, and connecting him or her to medical professionals. Over people have downloaded that app as well.

Despite widespread adoption of these apps in both countries, however, the low level of testing has led both governments to rely heavily on lockdowns, at a high economic, social and political price.

Stay Put

As millions of Argentines and Colombians slipped into poverty, compliance with the strict lockdowns flagged. In Bogot谩, Mayor Claudia L贸pez introduced rotating sector-specific lockdowns, coupled with 鈥�,鈥� a program to regulate movement based on national ID numbers. As the country鈥檚 economy , compliance in the capital declined, especially among daily wage earners, despite tough penalties for scofflaws that included fines up to $250, more than the . Colombian workers and business owners took to the streets to a lockdown that was pushing companies into bankruptcy. On September 1, Colombia eased its and reopened airports.

In Argentina, public angst is also cresting in response to the lockdown. Argentina鈥檚 initially social distancing measures are now among the in the world. Its government has also imposed for violators. After lifting some restrictions, including those on , cases . On August 17, protested the extension of the quarantine, part of a series of anti-government protests that in September.

Work-Life Imbalance

In part as a result of lockdowns such as those in Argentina and Colombia, Latin America is expected to see its economic contraction since the Great Depression. Argentina鈥檚 economy is projected to contract by over , while Colombia will endure its recession, with output falling by . These slowdowns have devastated labor markets. Unemployment in Colombia surged to in July. In response, the Colombian government launched a covering up to 40 percent of the minimum wage for formal workers. That was part of a fiscal stimulus program, equal to 11 percent of GDP, to mitigate the economic effects of the pandemic. The government also relaxed for 2020 and 2021, and the International Monetary Fund approved a expansion to its Flexible Credit Line to Colombia.

has also taken steps to bring down its highest unemployment rate since 2006. To prevent mass joblessness, the government layoffs without cause and created a program to subsidize of private sector wages for severely impacted businesses. These and other emergency social welfare programs have pushed the national budget back into a deep hole, with a projected of 4.5 percent.

A Falling Tide

Despite the massive stimulus spending in Argentina and Colombia, the pandemic鈥檚 economic consequences are severe. Upwards of will fall into poverty this year. Many are informal workers not registered in government . To address communities left out of previous programs, Mr. Duque created the 鈥�,鈥� which grants $125 to poverty-stricken families not enrolled in other emergency social programs. Nevertheless, a suggests 63 percent of Colombia鈥檚 poor have not received any government assistance. Some have resorted to hanging 鈥�,鈥� or red rags, in front of their homesin a plea for help.

A particular challenge for Mr. Duque is Colombia鈥檚 population of Venezuelan migrants. An estimated of these individuals earn less than the minimum wage, and experience food insecurity. The pandemic exacerbated these challenges, prompting the and organizations to step in to provide food and medical services.

In Argentina, which experienced two years of recession before the pandemic, the poverty rate is expected to jump to this year. The government implemented emergency cash transfer and food allowance , though the high rate of is eroding the purchasing power of government payments.

Political Fallout

Although public officials in both countries emphasize the need for continued vigilance, public opinion shows a growing sense of frustration. COVID-19-related concerns are being overtaken by concerns over economic issues.

Initially, Colombians鈥� was , but job security is now a higher public priority. Mr. Duque鈥檚 rating is up, from 23 percent prior to the pandemic to in September, but well below the support he enjoyed earlier in this crisis.

Argentines are also growing more worried about their personal finances. A revealed that 64 percent of Argentines are fearful about their long-term job security. President Alberto Fern谩ndez鈥檚 rapid lockdowns earned him an of 84 percent in April, but his popularity is down to percent.

Rising frustration with public health restrictions, worsening economic strain and expanding virus caseloads have put the leaders of Argentina and Colombia in a vise. A premature economic reopening could erase the benefits of the economically and politically costly lockdowns in both countries. But the political and economic costs of continued restrictions are increasingly hard to absorb.