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Less than two months before Brazil鈥檚 most consequential presidential election in decades, the country is suffering the effects of a turbulent global economy, including high inflation, and there are widespread concerns about democratic backsliding amid attacks on the country鈥檚 electoral system by President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies. But for many Brazilians, the most urgent debate is about how to reverse years of declining prosperity and narrowing opportunity across this vast country. That challenge will be immense for the next president, who will also need to restore democratic norms and navigate the global economic dramas.

Food insecurity in Brazil is perhaps the most compelling example. Once hailed globally for its combatting hunger, Brazil is facing a food crisis. A December 2020 found that roughly half of the country鈥檚 213.6 million inhabitants do not always have enough to eat. The number of Brazilians facing severe food insecurity nearly doubled between 2018 and 2020, to 19.1 million, or almost 10% of the population, the same level as nearly .

Once hailed globally for its success combating hunger, Brazil is facing a food crisis.鈥�

Former President Luiz In谩cio 鈥淟ula鈥� da Silva, the leading candidate in the October election, made significant headway on this problem through his Fome Zero (Zero Hunger) program, launched in 2004. It included : (1) the Bolsa Fam铆lia (Family Allowance) cash transfer program for low-income families; (2) a national school nutrition program; and, (3) subsidies for agricultural families. To complement , Brazilian lawmakers passed the Organic Law of Food and Nutritional Security, recognizing food security as a human right. Hunger steadily declined, and of Brazilians escaped extreme poverty.

But a brutal recession that began in 2015 tested the durability of these gains, as did the impeachment in 2016 of Lula鈥檚 hand-picked successor, Dilma Rousseff. Brazil鈥檚 next leader, former Vice President Michel Temer, instituted a spending cap on social services that sharply reduced the budget for anti-hunger programs. Bolsonaro sustained those cuts, and the National Council for Food and Nutritional Security, an outside advisory board that formulated food security policy recommendations.

The number of Brazilians facing severe food insecurity nearly doubled between 2018 and 2020.鈥�

COVID-19 exacerbated the challenge of feeding all Brazilians. 聽estimate that the number of Brazilians experiencing hunger increased from 19.1 million to 33.1 million, or roughly 15.5 percent of the population, from late 2020 to early this year. A of households suffering from food insecurity are headed by Afro-Brazilian women in the North and Northeast, Lula鈥檚 traditional stronghold.

Given the severity of the problem and the country鈥檚 worrisome trajectory, the issue of food security has become an important campaign topic, even amid high inflation and acute fears about the health of Brazil鈥檚 democracy. Lula repeatedly highlights his successes as president in reducing hunger and has prioritized the food crisis in his . For his part, Bolsonaro ditched Lula鈥檚 Bolsa Fam铆lia, but he replaced it with Aux铆lio Brasil, a similar cash transfer program that offers larger . In the run-up to the election, those payments will by an additional 50 percent, despite fears about Brazil鈥檚 growing debt.

Given the severity of the problem and the country鈥檚 worrisome trajectory, the issue of food security has become an important campaign topic.鈥�

Bolsonaro鈥檚 eagerness to increase cash payments to poor Brazilians reflects the political salience of hunger 鈥� and the president鈥檚 desperation to siphon votes from Lula鈥檚 base. But to make meaningful progress, Brazil鈥檚 next government will need to assure sustained attention and investment for food security. For now, Bolsonaro鈥檚 increased Aux铆lio Brasil payouts are scheduled to phase out by the end of the year, and a potential extension will be an important decision following the election.