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Hot Summer in Kyiv: President Zelenskyy and The Rada

Mykhailo Minakov
Volodymyr Zelenskyy on his May 20, 2019 presidential inauguration.

BY MYKHAILO MINAKOV

Ukrainians knew at the start of 2019 that they were entering a super-election year, with both spring presidential and autumn parliamentary elections scheduled. What they did not anticipate was the new president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his inaugural speech to the Verkhovna Rada that he was dissolving parliament鈥攁nd that parliamentary elections would therefore have to take place much sooner than expected, on July 21 rather than October 26.

No one was prepared for this in schedule. The Central Electoral Commission has that it might not be able to produce the ballots in time for the earlier parliamentary elections. The main parties are rushing to create their lists of candidates. The major candidates are urgently meeting with their constituencies on building new roads and schools.

However, Ukrainians鈥 plans for a summer vacation may still pan out, since the Constitutional Court has begun to decide whether Zelenskyy鈥檚 dismissal of parliament is constitutional. On the one hand, de facto, the country鈥檚 governing coalition, comprising Arseny Yatsenyuk鈥檚 People鈥檚 Front party as the parliamentary faction and the Petr Poroshenko Bloc as the presidential party, as well as several other smaller factions, did not exist for more than three years, after Tymoshenko and Lyashko it in 2016, and there were some unappointed ministers in the cabinet. On the other hand, de jure, the parliamentary speaker the death of the coalition only in May 2019.

Even though there is a chance the elections will be postponed beyond July 21 (the Court is expected to issue its verdict by the end of June), all the major Ukrainian parties have started preparations. The Petr Poroshenko Bloc was European Solidarity, while the former president he wants to be 鈥渢he nation鈥檚 father,鈥 like , who has no position but defines today鈥檚 Polish politics from behind the scenes. Yatsenyuk鈥檚 People鈥檚 Front, facing vast unpopularity, has decided it seats in the new parliament through majoritarian districts. Leaders of the different factions of the Opposition Bloc are on combining forces to regain the votes in Ukraine鈥檚 South-East that went to Zelenskyy. Yulia Tymoshenko鈥檚 party has spread out to the regions to gain as much support for party and majoritarian elections as possible. An emerging political group, , led by pop singer Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, has started an active campaign in the same regions and among the same demographics that gave their votes to Poroshenko.

Unlike most of the older parties, which have managed to attract only modest support, Zelenskyy鈥檚 party is garnering more and more support, even though it has neither a coherent platform nor a list in place. The party will be by a young political expert and campaigner, Dmytro Razumkov. To fill in the echoing space left by an absent team, the Servant of the People party (named after the popular TV series starring Zelenskyy as an ethical schoolteacher who rises to become president) e-applications from its supporters to nominate the best candidates.

So far the chances of the old and new parties have been by Ukrainian voters this way. The Servant of the People party has the support of 48.2 percent of those who plan to vote in the parliamentary elections and have settled on a party (in two weeks this metric moved up by nine percent). Its closest rival, the Opposition Bloc, is almost forty percentage points lower, with only 10.7 percent of likely voters supporting it. Poroshenko鈥檚 European Solidarity is supported by 7.8 percent of likely voters, Tymoshenko鈥檚 Batkivshchyna by 6.9 percent. Vakarchuk鈥檚 Voice party stands a chance of winning seats in parliament with 5.6 percent. Other parties do not meet the 5 percent threshold in opinion polls.

With elections looming, relations between President Zelenskyy and the Verkhovna Rada remain hostile. After delaying the inauguration of the president-elect, a majority in parliament has consistently derailed all the president鈥檚 initiatives. Zelenskyy to get a passing vote on changing the election law. The Rada continues to other presidential draft laws, such as legislation on impeachment and rescinding MPs鈥 immunity. Also, the Rada did not Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman鈥檚 resignation, tendered at the request of the president. The war between the president鈥檚 office and parliament has already led to a stalemate in government and does not serve the nation.

In this hostile environment, President Zelenskyy has focused on areas where he can make a difference, his administration and international relations.

The president the key staff of his administration during his first ten days in office. My research shows that out of a dozen appointments to key administration, general staff, and security service positions, three have past links to the wealthy businessman Ihor Kolomoisky, who some allege aided Zelenskyy鈥檚 bid for the presidency. A larger group of appointees come from Zelenskyy鈥檚 media company, each of them counterbalancing the appointees in the previous group in case there should be divided loyalties. Others, such as Ruslan Ryaboshapka, Ruslan Stefanchuk, and Vadym Prystaiko, built solid careers in their sectors of responsibility鈥攁nticorruption efforts, the law, and diplomacy, respectively鈥攁nd constitute a group of technocrats.

President Zelenskyy has also made a symbolic choice for his first visit abroad. He went to Brussels, where he met with and leaders on June 4. There Zelenskyy an important statement that Euro-Atlantic integration remains a priority for his presidency.

Even before setting out on his Brussels trip, Zelenskyy had started a dialogue with the International Monetary Fund. On May 28 he met with the IMF mission in Kyiv, where the parties opened a discussion of cooperation priorities. The next steps in the partnership will be discussed after parliamentary elections and the appointment of a new cabinet.

Which brings us back to the parliamentary elections. They are crucial for Ukraine, as they will effectively decide how the country will be led under a new president and new prime minister. The answer to that will become apparent only in August, when the results of the parliamentary elections are announced and a new governing coalition emerges, unless the Constitutional Court postpones the election until October.

About the Author

Mykhailo Minakov

Mykhailo Minakov

Senior Advisor; Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine Blog
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Kennan Institute

The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the surrounding region though research and exchange.  Read more