澳门六合彩

President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 (AMLO) political party, the Movimiento de Regeneraci贸n Nacional, or Morena, won the governor鈥檚 race in the State of Mexico in June, snatching control of the most populous state from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which had ruled it since 1929. The victory of Delfina G贸mez, the first woman to govern the state, extended the governing party鈥檚 control to 23 out of 32 states. When L贸pez Obrador began his term in 2018, Morena only controlled seven states. Importantly, the victory in the State of Mexico also provided momentum to the president鈥檚 party ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

The victory of Delfina G贸mez, the first woman to govern the state, extended the governing party鈥檚 control to 23 out of 32 states.鈥�

The State of Mexico is a jewel in Mexico鈥檚 electoral landscape. It is home to over 12 million voters and is both an economic and electoral powerhouse. Traditionally, the party that wins the governor鈥檚 race in the State of Mexico also wins the presidential contest. The once hegemonic PRI is down but not out. Its candidate in Coahuila, for example, Manolo Jim茅nez, won the governorship, capturing more than double the votes of the second-place finisher. Still, the loss in the State of Mexico was a blow the PRI and raised questions about its ability to counterbalance Morena.

Breaking Away

Following the PRI鈥檚 loss in the State of Mexico, the party鈥檚 prospects have dimmed further. Recently, four prominent PRI senators 鈥� including a former governor of the State of Mexico 鈥� and hundreds of other party members resigned from the party, citing strong differences with the party鈥檚 president, Alejandro 鈥淎lito鈥� Moreno. The PRI struggles could have a major impact on the Va por M茅xico alliance 鈥� made up of the National Action Party (PAN), the PRI, and the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD). The coalition hopes to designate a single candidate to compete against Morena for the presidency and for control of Congress.

Another factor is the high abstention rates in recent regional elections. In the State of Mexico and Coahuila, the abstention rate exceeded 40 percent, significantly higher than in past years. That has raised questions about whether the opposition can match Morena鈥檚 capacity to mobilize supporters for the national elections.

Amid voter frustration with traditional politics, Morena has begun to resemble the single-party rule of the PRI.鈥�

Hegemonic Control

Nearly everywhere in Latin America, perhaps except Paraguay, recent elections have gone poorly for incumbents. That sentiment was clear in Mexico鈥檚 midterm elections in 2021; though AMLO retained remarkably high approval ratings, Morena lost control of the lower house of congress. Amid voter frustration with traditional politics, Morena has begun to resemble the single-party rule of the PRI. Yet AMLO continues to promote his party as Mexico鈥檚 only alternative to what he describes as the country鈥檚 corrupt and neoliberal traditional parties. So far, that strategy is working. The聽 favor Morena to win the 2024 presidential election.

An Unexpected Contender

Lately, however, the dynamics of the election have changed, with the surprise emergence of a new opposition candidate: X贸chitl G谩lvez, a 60-year-old indigenous PAN senator with a compelling personal story and a blazing personality.

Since announcing her candidacy for the Frente Amplio por M茅xico in June, G谩lvez has emerged as the opposition frontrunner. Perhaps the clearest sign of her rising profile are the escalating attacks against her by AMLO during his morning press conferences, attempts to discredit her personally and professionally. Notably, the president鈥檚 remarks have only boosted her approval rating and raised her profile nationally.

Born in the state of Hidalgo to an alcoholic and abusive father, X贸chitl sold pudding on the street to make ends meet. Today, she is a seasoned politician, having served as the head of the National Institute of Indigenous Peoples under the Vicente Fox administration and run unsuccessfully to become Hidalgo鈥檚 governor. A former mayor of Miguel Hidalgo, a wealthy county of Mexico City, X贸chitl became senator in 2018.

G谩lvez leads her rivals within the opposition coalition by 40 percentage points, and is tied nationally with Claudia Sheinbaum, former Mexico City mayor and AMLO鈥檚 favored candidate.鈥�

G谩lvez is not yet the opposition鈥檚 unity candidate; the coalition will make that decision next month. Already, however, she has shown a unique ability to energize diverse blocs of voters on issues crucial to the future of Mexico, including Mexicans once considered out of reach for the opposition. According to a聽 by M茅xico Elige, G谩lvez leads her rivals within the opposition coalition by 40 percentage points, and is tied nationally with Claudia Sheinbaum, former Mexico City mayor and AMLO鈥檚 favored candidate. While there are still ten months until the election, a race that was once seemed uncompetitive appears to be up for grabs.

Morena must also select its presidential candidate, and AMLO has not yet picked his favorite between Sheinbaum and AMLO鈥檚 former foreign minister, Marcelo Ebrard. Before X贸chitl entered the race, analysts expected AMLO to endorse Sheinbaum. But X贸chitl鈥檚 emergence might change his calculation. Many observers argue that Ebrard, a more moderate figure than Sheinbaum, is better positioned to take on G谩lvez, as he could appeal both to voters loyal to AMLO鈥檚 Fourth Transformation and those dissatisfied with Morena鈥檚 performance over AMLO鈥檚 six-year term.

Ultimately,聽AMLO鈥檚 favored candidate will doubtlessly emerge victorious in the Morena primary. The president, however, will have to work far harder to get his way in the general election.