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The second quarter of 2023 was dominated by preparations for Ukraine's counteroffensive operation, which started in late June. Fighters received specialized training, and arms and matériel were rounded up. Looking for greater international support, Ukraine devoted massive efforts to connect with as many states as possible, including those well off Ukraine's radar in recent years.

An explosion attributed to Russia destroyed the dam of the Nova Kakhovka hydropower plant, with devastating and longlasting humanitarian, social, environmental, and economic impacts. The loss of a water supply for the cooling ponds at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant jeopardized the plant’s safety, which was worsened in other ways as well. Kyiv expects Russia may try to organize a nuclear accident at the power plant and blame it on Ukraine.

1. ROLLOUT OF THE WAR

General Developments during April–June

During heavy fighting in the second quarter of the year, the Russian forces did not make significant progress. The key feature of the war in this period was Ukraine’s preparation for its counteroffensive, which started in June but was far from 100 percent capacity. In late June, the Ukrainian army began to regain some territory that had previously fallen under Russian control.

At the front, Russia to scorched-earth tactics, with air strikes, artillery fire, and sometimes . The heaviest battles took place near Bakhmut, Maryinka, Avdiyivka, and Lyman in Donetsk oblast and Kupiansk in Kharkiv oblast. Despite concern over force strengths, Ukraine has managed to defend Bakhmut, the epicenter of Russia’s war, for more than a year, and has even made in some neighboring areas.

New Air Attack Tactics. The Russians amended their air attack tactics, probably driven by the of cruise missiles. In regions close to the front, they resorted to massive strikes with dropped from warplanes. In other regions, most attacks were conducted with Iranian drones, ballistic missiles, and even supersonic missiles. Russia has a new assault aviation group to operate in the skies over Ukraine. In addition, at the front lines, the Russian army frequently resorted to the of helicopters, probably to compensate for the lack of artillery, in an attempt to stop the Ukrainian forces.

May was among the most active months with respect to the number and frequency of air attacks since the invasion. For instance, Kyiv was attacked . Often the Russian forces combined the use of drones, ballistic devices, and supersonic missiles in a single attack. The concentration of mixed technologies could represent an the rollout of the counteroffensive and wear down Ukraine’s air defense systems.

In the face of these attacks, the Ukrainian air defense forces proved highly effective. In May they the Russian supersonic missile Kinzhal for the first time; the Kinzhal had earlier been promoted by Vladimir Putin as an invincible weapon. As of mid-June, Ukrainian air forces had reported about thirteen downed Kinzhals.

Operations inside Russia. In the second quarter of 2023, dozens of drones attacked different targets inside Russia. No one has taken responsibility for these attacks, which included a drone explosion . were conducted in Belgorod, Russia, near the border with Ukraine by consisting of Russians who were fighting on the side of Ukraine under the names Freedom of Russia and the Russian Volunteer Corps. Ukrainian military personnel the Russian border.

Though local government officials had announced their own “counterterrorism ” in response to these attacks, Russian army forces with the intrusions, and the legions conducted a few more operations, even staying in Russian cities. These operations had the effect of the Russian army to regroup and change its strategies before the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Ukrainian intelligence services they had gained valuable information from these incursions.

Counteroffensive Operations

Despite high interest on the part of the public, Kyiv kept mum about plans for the massive counteroffensive. Western media that Kyiv was keeping details hidden even from Ukraine’s allies. On June 10, President Zelensky that the counteroffensive had begun. Western officials and media, based on information from sources, reported that only of the specially trained reserve forces designated for counteroffensive operations had been involved in the operations. Since mid-June, the army has reported liberating some settlements and making advances on multiple fronts.

The Kakhovka Dam Disaster

On June 6, attributed to Russia destroyed the enormous and the floodwaters rushed downstream, inundating neighboring areas. Russian forces had taken control of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant in February 2022, at the beginning of the wide-scale invasion, and in October had planted explosives inside the dam and the plant. Kyiv became cognizant of these actions and cautioned that Russia intended to blow up the dam. The impact of the dam’s collapse on the power system was relatively minor compared to the humanitarian, social, environmental, and economic impacts.

The reservoir created by the dam had provided drinking water to five regions, which will suffer from water scarcity—700,000 people to potable water. The dam’s collapse will undermine water-hungry industrial and agrarian production in a few regions. The blow to the agrarian sector is expected to cause huge globally, especially in the global south, as described in an earlier Kennan Institute Focus Ukraine blog piece on the impacts.

Crimea has lost its water supply, and there are threats to Black Sea ecosystems from the toxins being washed downstream from upstream activities on the Dnipro river.

The reservoir had supplied the cooling ponds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, so the risk of a nuclear accident has increased. The IAEA how long the existing water reserves could last because of various external factors, such as evaporation and possible future leaks.

Worsened Situation with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Russians continued the militarization of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, creating more threats to nuclear safety. A Russian mine explosion near the fourth unit resulted in to windows in the turbine hall. In May the NPP temporarily lost its power supply for the seventh time. These incidents raised with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) because of the unpredictable nature of the situation and the clear risks to nuclear safety.

After the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam, President Zelensky of Russian plans to organize an explosion of the NPP. Earlier, Ukrainian intelligence had revealed that Russia was planning to simulate shelling and an accident at the NPP with radioactive material emissions as a false flag operation, for which it would blame Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence services that in addition, Russians had mined the NPP in mid-June. The risk that Russia might cause a real nuclear accident while trying to deflect blame from itself is growing. In late June, Ukrainian said that the Russians were ready at the power plant.

Russia’s Position on the War

In the second quarter, the Kremlin started changing the narrative about the war. Key messages promoted recently the following: Russia is ready to stop the war and retain the lands it has occupied. Russia is trying to stop a war it did not start and does not want, but Ukraine and the West do not want peace. Russia has successfully thwarted Ukraine’s counteroffensive operation (which, however, is barely underway). In all these narratives and more, Russia attempts to portray itself as victim rather than aggressor, just as it has done from the start. At the same time, the Kremlin has continued blackmailing by upping the likelihood of a nuclear accident at Zaporizhzhia NPP, threatening to resort to nuclear weapons use, and conducting further air attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Certain controversions of truth inform this new narrative. President Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, that Russia has largely achieved the goal of “demilitarizing Ukraine,” pointing out that Ukraine has lost a large part of its existing weapon supply but neglecting to mention the huge supply of modern weapons that Ukraine has received from its allies. Peskov also the Russian army’s lack of progress in Ukraine by saying Russia is not conducting a war of aggression and refrains from destroying cities, a claim that does not comport with the facts of mass destruction, the targeting of civilian infrastructure, and the numerous crimes attributed to Russian forces. Vladimir Putin himself a controversial statement that the goals of the war remain unchanged, but could change on an ad hoc basis.

Putin lied again about history, that Ukraine is located in Russian territory. However, the Republic of Ukraine defined its future territory in 1917 according to a population count and identification of territories where Ukrainians were in the majority. Furthermore, some of the Ukrainian territories Russia has occupied were the cradle of the Ukrainian nation.

Attacks on Critical Infrastructure

The Nova Kakhovka dam was not the only dam blown up by Russians. later was destroyed in Donetsk oblast, causing flooding. The Ukrainian army had made some progress in counterforce operations in that area. Russia continued air attacks on the energy facilities, damaging the power systems and natural gas production. Despite some structural damage, energy supplies were very little affected.

Ukrainian intelligence services that Russians had mined the Titan plant in Crimea, which produced titanium dioxide. Huge stocks of ammonia and sulfuric acid are located at the plant. The Kakhovka dam collapse left the plant without needed water supplies, causing production delays and explaining the perverse logic of destroying the factory.

Crimes against Civilians and Attacks on Civil Infrastructure

Russia deporting children from the occupied territories. As of early June, the Ukrainian government 20,000 deported children, including 4,500 orphans or children deprived of parental care. The share of all children who return from deportation is very small. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe that the forcible transfer and “russification” of Ukrainian children constitute evidence of genocide. 500 children have been killed and thousands of others wounded in the course of the hostilities. Videos are available in which Russian militants they killed young children. The UN Russia to its global list of shame for maiming and killing children in Ukraine.

Ukraine Belarus is involved in the kidnapping and transfer of Ukrainian children and POWs. The Belarusian Red Cross that more than 700 Ukrainian children are in the country.

And Russia continued committing crimes against civilians in the occupied territories. Vladimir Putin a decree allowing forced deportations from these regions. Russians "" civilians in the occupied territories in Ukraine’s East and them to fight against Ukraine. The occupiers conduct searches and those with active pro-Ukrainian inclinations. Deported Ukrainians are to fifty-five regions deep inside Russia to assimilate. Russian officials that 1.5 million Ukrainians there had obtained Russian passports.

In June, the Kremlin its desire to hold (sham) elections in September in the occupied territories. This will require the quick issuance of Russian passports. The occupiers have continued pressuring Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories to obtain Russian passports by restricting needed and to cut off the power supply, confiscate property, and forcibly evict those who refuse. Some to filtration camps. In a particularly heinous move, Russian forces non-Russian-passport holders after the Kakhovka dam explosion, leaving them to drown or to attempt to flee to safety in Ukrainian skiffs under gunfire.

The Russian army has also continued attacking civilian targets with air and ground strikes. The destroyed structures include apartment buildings, the , , schools, kindergartens, , and churches.

Crimes Against Military Personnel

of the execution of Ukrainian soldiers by Russian soldiers have spread rapidly on the internet. They are . In some cases, Russians have killed Ukrainian POWs because of their , and some after . The Ukrainian human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubintes that 86 percent of Ukrainian POWs were tortured and that he had received “dozens of videos” of public executions of Ukrainian military personnel by Russian soldiers. The torture and execution of POWs are breaches of the Geneva Conventions and constitute war crimes. Ukraine to the International Criminal Court to investigate these crimes on an urgent basis.

2. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

During the second quarter of 2023, a few more countries recognized the as a genocide of the Ukrainian people organized by the Kremlin regime. , , , , , and the were added to the list of such countries. NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly issued another essential statement Russia's crimes against Ukraine as genocide.

The Council of Europe Summit of damage for Ukraine. Forty-four countries and the EU have joined or indicated their intention to join; other states are free to join. That marks the first step toward creating an international compensation mechanism for the victims of Russian aggression.

President Zelensky’s Diplomatic Tours

President Zelensky remained a key newsmaker in Ukraine’s foreign affairs as he sought to connect with as many states as possible, including those well off Ukraine's radar in recent years. The president visited several states, meeting their leaders and addressing parliaments in hopes of increasing their support for Ukraine. Most of these visits were unannounced and took place on a tight schedule. They seem to have been very effective as the allies’ support for Ukraine is growing.

, President Zelensky Finland for a summit with Nordic leaders. he visited the Netherlands, addressed the Dutch parliament, and delivered a speech at The Hague titled "No Peace without Justice." Ukraine, Belgium, and the Netherlands signed a expressing unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.

In mid-May, President Zelensky undertook a whirlwind diplomatic tour of some key European capitals. On May 13 he arrived in Rome to meet and to discuss with the . He then left for to discuss military aid, postwar reconstruction, and Ukraine’s NATO and EU aspirations with German officials. That same day he flew to to meet French president Emmanuel Macron. On May 15, Zelensky traveled to London and with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The G7 leaders their "unwavering support" for Ukraine for as long as is necessary to achieve a "just and lasting peace."

Also in mid-May, President Zelensky Saudi Arabia for the first time and the Arab League summit, looking for support from the Arab countries and . The president stressed Ukraine’s importance to the region as a grain exporter. Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman to mediate the war. Earlier, on May 5, Bahrain's foreign minister Kyiv for the first time and met President Zelensky. A delegation from the UAE in June.

After the Arab League summit, Zelensky the G7 meeting in Japan in person, giving to leaders and taking personal meetings with some leaders, including U.S. president Joe Biden, German chancellor Olaf Scholz, and UK prime minister Rishi Sunak. In early June he the European Political Community summit in Moldova. EU and NATO integration and additional military support, including the “fighter jet coalition,” were of bilateral meetings Zelensky held with European leaders.

Relations with the United States and Canada

The United States remains a key ally in the war against Russia and a leading provider of military aid, standing in defense of freedom and justice. President Biden the U.S. commitment to supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend their sovereignty and democracy against Russia’s invasion. In June the United States a new $2.1 billion military aid package for Ukraine.

In April, Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal visited Canada, and Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau in June. The countries updated their free-trade agreement, in force since 2017, to expand the list of goods covered by the zero-duty trade regime.

The Ukrainian nuclear power company Energoatom with the Canadian Cameco on enriching Ukrainian uranium and transporting supplies of enriched uranium, earlier carried by Russian companies. Thanks to the cooperation Westinghouse and Cameco, the Ukrainian nuclear power sector has now become independent of Russia.

Relations with the EU and Other European States

The EU Ukraine’s progress necessary for future membership talks. EU officials and member states continued demonstrating support for Ukraine. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Ukraine to celebrate the day of Europe in Kyiv—“.” European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson Kyiv to discuss police cooperation and war crimes investigations. The commissioner that the EU had not observed any significant weapons smuggling into Europe from wartime Ukraine. According to the agreements signed in June, 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers under the EU Military Assistance Mission for Ukraine.

EU governments by a year the suspension of duties and quotas on imports from Ukraine to help Ukraine’s economy during the war with Russia. The EU and Ukraine on mutual recognition of court decisions. In May the EU a €1 billion plan to finance the provision of artillery rounds and missiles.

Poland. In April, President Zelensky Poland, a key Ukrainian ally. As of mid-May, Poland 325 tanks out of the 575 promised by Ukraine's partners and MiG-29 fighter jets. The two countries a joint memorandum on the reconstruction of war-damaged areas of Ukraine and the . They to repair T-64 tanks jointly, and, as planned, German Leopard tanks be repaired in Poland. About 80 percent of Poles Polish-Ukrainian relations positively. The only issue that cast a shadow on bilateral relations in the second quarter of 2023 was a disagreement over Ukrainian agricultural exports (described below). Polish president Andrzej Duda Kyiv in late June with his Lithuanian counterpart. Both for Ukraine's NATO membership.

Germany. Germany became one of the key supporters and providers of military aid to Ukraine in 2023. In May, Germany a new, aid volume of almost $3 billion. This level of assistance is dramatically different from what Germany was willing to provide earlier: in early 2022 the German government to provide only 5,000 helmets, and as the invasion swiftly unfolded, German finance minister Christian Lindner supplying weapons to Ukraine, expecting the county to fail shortly. Now Germany is sending Ukraine arms of vital importance, to produce munitions, and training Ukrainian soldiers.

In early April, German vice chancellor Habeck visited Ukraine to discuss the country’s renovation. The parties also a memorandum on expanding their energy partnership. President Zelensky twice met with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, once during his visit to Berlin and again when attending the G7 summit in Japan.

In May, Ukrainian and German defense companies an agreement on a strategic partnership and agreed to establish a joint venture that will commence operations in July. The partnership with the repair of armored vehicles and move on to the production of weapons and military equipment.

Slovakia. President Zuzana Čaputová and her Czech counterpart, Petr Pavel, Ukraine in April. Later, the three countries on the joint purchase and repair of infantry fighting vehicles. The Czech Republic to a joint repair of T-64 tanks with Ukraine.

Denmark. Ukraine a five-year agreement with Denmark to help rebuild destroyed wind power capacities and strengthen its energy independence from Russia. Denmark to providing €1 billion for Ukraine’s restoration and of military aid in June worth $3.2. billion. Ukraine’s neighbors Romania and Moldova signed of security cooperation.

Hungary. Another round of tensions took place in relations with Hungary, as has become almost a tradition in bilateral relations in recent years. Hungary EU off-budget military support for Ukraine, to block new anti-Russian sanctions unless Kyiv took the Hungarian OTP bank off its blacklist, the future of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, and so on. But some undiplomatic statements were uttered as well. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán to Ukraine as financially "nonexistent," and later Ukraine could not win against Russia.

In June, Hungarian officials that eleven Ukrainian POWs of Hungarian origin had been received from Russia; Kyiv had not previously been informed of the transfer. Top-ranking Hungarian officials they had been informed about the swap or were involved in it, claiming that the it. Only five of the eleven , and Ukrainian diplomats were unsuccessful in contacting the rest.

Relations with Iran

Iran continued supplying weapons to Russia to be used in the war against Ukraine. Those technologies included drones, which, as Ukraine’s military officials admit, for Ukraine’s air defense. Tehran even that its drones are "game-changers" in Ukraine. In late May the Ukrainian approved fifty-year sanctions against Iran. These sanctions ban any trade and transit operations, including flights, and stipulate steps to prevent the withdrawal of capital by Iranians residing in Ukraine. Ukraine, together with Canada, Sweden, and the UK, at the International Court of Justice over the downing of a Ukrainian airliner by Iran in early 2020.

Other Countries

In recent months Kyiv has started paying more attention to Africa. Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba made a diplomatic tour of Africa, seeking support for Ukraine’s UN General Assembly resolutions. On June 16, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, Senegal’s President Macky Sall, and high-ranking officials of some other African states Ukraine with . The and aggravated inflation have made African states deeply concerned about the war in Ukraine. At the same time, many African states have close ties with Russia. Earlier, the U.S. ambassador to South Africa that country had likely supplied weapons to Russia, and urged it to hew to its non-alignment policy. After visiting Kyiv, the African leaders left for talks in Moscow.

Diplomatic tension marred relations with Brazil. The country’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, that Ukraine should be open to giving up Crimea in exchange for peace with Russia. Lula that a club of nations, to include China and Brazil, mediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby exploded at the suggestion: “,” he said. Brazil has also to sell arms to Ukraine.

At the Shangri-La Dialogue defense meeting in Singapore in early June, Indonesia's defense minister also a plan, to include a demilitarized zone, with the recommendation that the wishes of the residents of the disputed territories be ascertained. It is hard to imagine a plan along these lines would be approved by Kyiv as it would narrow Ukrainian sovereign territory; Kyiv claims all of the non-government-controlled lands as Ukrainian, and therefore finds “no disputed territories between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.”

Relations with Russia

In May the Ukrainian parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Putin's regime as “ruscist.” , a portmanteau word, manifests in systematic violations of human rights and freedoms, cults of the leader, the use of force and militarism, systematic violations of the territorial integrity of other states, and disregard for international law. Ukraine also appealed to the global community to condemn ruscism.

In the second quarter of 2023, Kyiv continued imposing on Russian citizens, , and , including Russian companies in Ukraine, nationalizing some of those.

In April the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague Russia to pay Ukraine's Naftogaz $5 billion in compensation for “the illegal seizure of Naftogaz assets” in Crimea. As Russia did not respond, in late June Naftogaz the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia to confirm the decision and proceed with forcible collection under the , which handles enforcement of foreign awards.

The Grain Export Agreement

After a in March regarding an extension of the grain deal, which had an expiration date of May 18 (Russia wanted to extend it for 60 days only, whereas all other parties demanded a 120-day extension, in accordance with the original agreement), in April Russia started slowing the pace of required grain cargo ship inspections, with some ships waiting up to three months now for inspection. This delay amounted to a of ships and in the UN. Russia appears to be using inspections as a in its quest to transit ammonia through Ukraine’s pipelines.

Ukrainian grain exports have fallen drastically, with related losses as of late May to $1 billion. At the same time, Russian ships stealing Ukrainian grain and metal. The G7 on a mechanism to combat the suspected theft of Ukraine's grain.

Agricultural Exports Disputes

In April, the countries helping to transit Ukraine's agricultural products the European Commission to help resolve the problem of imports occurring in the context of domestic market oversaturation. , , and took it upon themselves to temporarily ban (for a couple of months) the import of Ukrainian grain and some food products unilaterally, without the European Commission’s approval. expressed concern but did not introduce a ban. After pressure from countries with abundant grain production of their own, the European Commission approved a temporary on importing wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflower seeds, and sunflower oil from Ukraine until mid-September, while allowing its transit.

Hungary was the only country that its unilateral ban. In response to embargoes, Ukraine sugar exports. A sugar shortage is now expected to occur in Hungary. The tension with Poland also . Ukraine and the European Commission to establish a consultative group to monitor issues related to exports. But as of the end of June, the dispute had not been settled.

The Fighter Jet Coalition

Kyiv has continued pushing allies to provide Ukraine with fighter jets. As with tanks, when Western countries agreed to provide them. According to media , Ukraine might receive F-16 fighter jets in early 2024. Earlier, different countries agreed to instruct Ukrainian pilots and mechanics in flying and maintaining F-16 jets.

3. INTERNAL AFFAIRS

The Economic Situation

The Ukrainian economy , with a 2.4 percent GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023, up from the fourth quarter of 2022. This growth is higher than expected. The National Bank of Ukraine the Kakhovka dam collapse will bring down the GDP by 0.2 percent.

Inflation as well. In April 2023, consumer inflation in Ukraine decreased to 17.9 percent in annual terms. A labor shortage the fall in wages. In the second quarter, most (62 percent) small and medium-sized businesses salaries in full; 32 percent said they had no financial reserves and 16 percent dismissed employees. 

The Energy Situation

Despite Russia’s relentless attacks on the energy infrastructure, Ukraine’s power system survived. Repair of damaged infrastructure and increasing the production of solar power plants resulted in a surplus of electricity and no power cutoffs to customers during the second quarter.

In the end, the improving situation made electricity exports possible April 11, such that Russia’s attacks could almost be considered to have failed (a separate Kennan Focus Ukraine text explains how the power system survived). But a huge amount of power capacity had to be maintained, with the result that in May and June, the country had to import electricity to meet demand. Ukraine also renovated and put into operation to Poland, one that had not been used since the early 1990s. The availability of the transmission line expanded Ukraine’s capacity for exporting and importing electricity. Nonetheless, and erring on the side of caution, Ukraine has not lifted the natural gas and coal export ban in anticipation of a potential lack of heating fuels during the coming winter.

The Arrest of the Supreme Court’s Head

In May the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine Ukraine’s Supreme Court chairman, Vsevolod Kniaziev, after he was caught taking a bribe of almost $3 million. The judges of the Supreme Court described it as an evil day. At a plenary meeting of the Supreme Court, 140 of 142 judges to dismiss Kniaziev. The criminal investigation continues.

4. PROGRESS IN REFORMS AND SUCCESS STORIES

President Zelenskyy the Comprehensive Strategic Plan for reforming the law enforcement system for 2023–2027. It covers the Prosecutor's Office, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the National Police, the State Border Guard Service, the State Bureau of Investigation, the Bureau of Economic Security of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the State Customs Service of Ukraine. The plan was developed to implement seven EU recommendations for Ukraine’s candidacy to be considered.

Increased Electricity Price for Households

In April, the government decided to almost double the electricity prices paid by households. Electricity sales to households were deeply unprofitable and had been subsidized by state-owned energy companies. However, these companies, above all the national nuclear power company Energoatom, were suffering economically from the war and could not cover the deficit at the low prices charged to households.

During 2015–2017 Ukraine saw a five-stage campaign to increase the tariff, which was increased by 3.5 times its earlier level. In 2021 the tariff was changed a small amount. The current inflationary environment, on top of less than optimal price increases, has led to an unsustainable situation. The deep subsidization of households' energy consumption was not in accordance with the EU’s rules and principles regarding energy markets that Ukraine must comply with.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.