澳门六合彩

Climate-related disasters could significantly impact military and civilian humanitarian response systems, so 鈥渁n ounce of prevention now is worth a pound of cure in the future,鈥� said CNA analyst E.D. McGrady at 澳门六合彩 launch of聽. The report, jointly published by CNA and Oxfam America, examines how climate change could affect the risk of natural disasters and U.S. government鈥檚 response to humanitarian emergencies.聽

Connecting the Dots Between Climate Change, Disaster Relief, and Security

The frequency of 鈥� and costs associated with 鈥� natural disasters are rising in part due to climate change, said McGrady, particularly for complex emergencies with underlying social, economic, or political problems, an overwhelming percentage of which occur in the developing world. In addition to the prospect of more intense storms and changing weather patterns, 鈥渆conomic and social stresses from agricultural disruption and [human] migration鈥� will place an additional burden on already marginalized communities, he said.聽

Paul O鈥橞rien, vice president for policy and campaigns at Oxfam America said the humanitarian assistance community needs to 聽and help them 鈥渃onnect the dots鈥� between climate change, disaster relief, and security.

As a 鈥渢hreat multiplier,鈥� climate change will likely exacerbate existing threats to natural and human systems, such as water scarcity, food insecurity, and global health deterioration, said Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (ret.), president of CNA鈥檚 Institute for Public Research. Major General Richard Engel, USAF (ret.), of the National Intelligence Council identified shifting disease patterns and infrastructural damage as other potential security threats that could be exacerbated by climate change.

鈥淲e must fight disease, fight hunger, and help people overcome the environments which they face,鈥� said Gunn. 鈥淒esperation and hopelessness are鈥he breeding ground for fanaticism.鈥�

U.S. Response: Civilian and Military Efforts

The United States plays a very significant role in global humanitarian assistance, 鈥渢ypically providing 40 to 50 percent of resources in a given year,鈥� said Marc Cohen, senior researcher on humanitarian policy and climate change at Oxfam America.

The civilian sector provides the majority of U.S. humanitarian assistance, said Cohen, including the USAID 聽(OFDA) and the State Department鈥檚聽. These organizations provide leadership, funding, and food aid to developing countries in times of crisis, but also beforehand: 鈥淭he internal rationale [of the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance] is to reduce risk and increase the resilience of people to reduce the need for humanitarian assistance in the future,鈥� said聽, climate change coordinator at USAID鈥檚 Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance.

The U.S. military complements and strengthens civilian humanitarian assistance efforts by accessing areas that civilian teams cannot reach. The military can utilize its heavy lift capability, in-theater logistics, and command and control functions when transportation and communications infrastructures are impaired, said McGrady, and if the situation calls for it, they can also provide security. In addition, the military could share lessons learned from its considerable experience planning for complex, unanticipated contingencies with civilian agencies preparing for natural disasters.

鈥淔orgotten Emergencies鈥�

Already under enormous stress, humanitarian assistance and disaster response systems have persistent weaknesses, such as shortfalls in the amount and structure of funding, poor coordination, and lack of political gravitas, said Cohen.

Food-related aid is over-emphasized, said Cohen: 鈥淚f we break down the shortfalls, we see that appeals for food aid get a better response than the type of response that would build assets and resilience鈥uch as agricultural bolstering and public health measures.鈥� Food aid often does not draw on local resources in developing countries, he said, which does little to improve long-term resilience.

鈥淎ssistance is not always based on need鈥ut on short-term political considerations,鈥� said Cohen, asserting that too much aid is supplied to areas such as Afghanistan and Iraq, while 鈥渇orgotten emergencies,鈥� such as the Niger food crisis, receive far too little. Furthermore, aid distribution needs to be carried out more carefully at the local scale as well: During complex emergencies in fragile states, any perception of unequal assistance has the potential to create 鈥渂lowback鈥� if the United States is identified with only one side of a conflict.

Engel added that many of the problems associated with humanitarian assistance will be further compounded by increasing urbanization, which concentrates people in areas that do not have adequate or resilient infrastructure for agriculture, water, or energy.

Preparing for Unknown Unknowns

A 鈥溾�� that utilizes the strengths of both the military and civilian humanitarian sectors is necessary to ensure that the United States is prepared for the future effects of climate change on complex emergencies in developing countries, said Engel.

In order to 鈥渃ut long-term costs and avoid some of the worst outcomes,鈥� the report recommends that the United States:

• Increase the efficiency of aid delivery by changing the budgetary process;
• Reduce the demand by increasing the resilience of marginal (or close-to-marginal) societies now;
• Be given the legal authority to purchase food aid from local producers in developing countries to bolster delivery efficiency, support economic development, and build agricultural resilience;
• Establish OFDA as the single lead federal agency for disaster preparedness and response, in practice as well as theory;
• Hold an OFDA-led biannual humanitarian planning exercise that is focused in addressing key drivers of climate-related emergencies; and,
• Develop a policy framework on military involvement in humanitarian response.

Cohen singled out 鈥渟tructural budget issues鈥� that pit appropriations for protracted emergencies in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Darfur against unanticipated emergencies, like the 2010聽. Disaster-risk reduction investments are not a 鈥渂udgetary trick鈥� to repackage disaster appropriations but a practical way to make more efficient use of current resources, he said: 鈥淪tudies show that the return on disaster-risk reduction is about seven to one 鈥� a pretty good cost-benefit ratio.鈥澛�

Edward Carr said that OFDA is already integrating disaster-risk reduction into its other strengths, such as early warning systems, conflict management and mitigation, democracy and governance, and food aid. However, to build truly effective resilience, these efforts must be tied to larger issues, such as economic development and general climate adaptation, he said.

鈥淲hat worries me most are not actually the things I do know, but the things we cannot predict right now,鈥� said Carr. 鈥淭hese are the biggest challenges we face.鈥�

Drafted by Kellie Furr and edited by Schuyler Null and Meaghan Parker