澳门六合彩

Since April 2018, Nicaragua has been rocked by civic protest, an anti-government popular mobilization not seen since the revolutionary government itself seized power in 1979. Attacks on demonstrators by the police and paramilitary groups have left over 250 dead and over a thousand wounded. Initially sparked by the government's lackluster response to a fire in a nature reserve and then by proposed reforms to the social security system, the protests quickly burgeoned into a broader movement that includes the private sector, students, labor unions, and public intellectuals demanding the resignation of President Daniel Ortega and the calling of early elections. The Nicaraguan Catholic Church has attempted to broker a national dialogue, but the talks are currently suspended.听 听

With Ortega refusing to leave office before the end of his current term in 2022, what are the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the current crisis? What will be the effect of deteriorating economic conditions on the prospects for dialogue? What role, if any, can the United States and other international actors play in the search for a political solution?听 听

In this Ground Truth Briefing, experts analyzed the current situation and future scenarios for Nicaragua.

听Selected Quotes

Cynthia Arnson

鈥淪ince last April, Nicaragua has been rocked by mass demonstrations against the government of President Daniel Ortega. This is really unlike anything since the Sandinistas first seized power in 1979. And, indeed, those of us who were alive and witnessed that event find that there are eerie parallels to that time: paving stones pulled up in the street to erect barricades, the same communities that resisted the dictatorship of Anastasio Somoza, now on the front lines against the Ortega government.鈥�

鈥淭he violence has been astonishing. Just yesterday, pro-government paramilitaries attacked several priests, including the Cardinal of Nicaragua and the Papal Nuncio, inside a local church. The Nicaraguan police and paramilitary groups have opened fire on demonstrators, leaving a toll of close to 300 dead, most of them young people.鈥�

Carlos Fernando Chamorro

鈥淲hat is behind the National Dialogue is a national civic insurrection. It is a peaceful revolution against Daniel Ortega鈥檚 dictatorship. There is not a civil war in Nicaragua. There are several forms of pressure against the government, including massive demonstrations, barricades, road blockades, general strikes 鈥� demanding Ortega鈥檚 resignation, political reform, and free elections. But there are not two armies fighting in Nicaragua. There is only one armed group and this is the Nicaraguan police and the paramilitary forces.鈥�

鈥淏esides the extraordinary work that has been done by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights that has documented the human rights violations in their report, I don鈥檛 see an appropriate reaction by the international community. And I鈥檓 not talking only about the U.S. or about the OAS, the United Nations, European Union. I think the crisis in Nicaragua demands a very strong, multilateral action to stop the massacre. I cannot understand how multilateral institutions like the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank continue to give money and loans to Ortega like business as usual, while in Nicaragua, there is a humanitarian crisis.鈥�

鈥淎t the moment the government is provoking the opposition and the people and the situation to evolve into a civil war. That鈥檚 a major threat鈥� The moment the opposition moves away from peaceful insurrection, from civic protest, I think the Nicaraguan future is lost.鈥�

鈥淭he government has organized the paramilitary forces and that puts in question the role of the army. There will be a moment in which the army will have to decide either to continue being [an] accomplice of Ortega or to act and disarm the paramilitary forces.鈥�

Juan Sebasti谩n Chamorro

鈥淭he National Dialogue has been on and off for the last month and a half. But unfortunately, from the side of the government, they are basically trying to gain time鈥� [by framing] the members of the Civic Alliance for Justice and Democracy as terrorists and as responsible for a soft coup d鈥櫭﹖at.鈥�

鈥淢ore than 200,000 people have lost their jobs already... [and] the economic growth is expected to be negative 6 percent by the end of the year if this conflict is not resolved. How can we resolve this conflict? I think pressure from the streets 鈥� general strikes, economic pressures, and also pressure in the international arena.鈥�

鈥淯nder these circumstances, I would strongly oppose the possibility of the IMF signing an agreement with the government in the middle of a social/political crisis because those [IMF] programs are usually combined with fresh funds. My concern would be these fresh funds would be used to oppress the population of Nicaragua.鈥�

Daisy George West

鈥淚 totally agree with Carlos Fernando鈥攖his is a civil insurrection. And this is not only the effect of the problem that they made a reform, a unilateral reform, for the social security issue. This is something that is ongoing from the second time that Ortega came to government. He鈥檚 been changing, he鈥檚 been reforming all the laws in Nicaragua to make sure that he will be forever [in power].鈥�

鈥淭he worst thing is that the鈥� official media is denying everything and putting information that shows that the bad guys are the ones [committing] crimes and bringing other actors to do all this violence. They want to point to the Alliance group. This is very sad to see how they are manipulating information to harm more of the people鈥� I think it鈥檚 time now that the international community step up and come and give us [a] hand.鈥�

鈥淲e need to have new institutions, new people, and we need to review all (of the electoral) system that he [Ortega] imposed鈥� That鈥檚 one of the reasons why the dialogue is not improving because they don鈥檛 want to sit down and talk about this progress.鈥澨�

Amb. Todd Robinson

鈥淚t鈥檚 really important that this remain a Nicaraguan-led process. It鈥檚 really important that at the end of the day the two Nicaraguan sides be seen as the leaders in how this is going to end. I agree that the international community has a lot to do, but at the end of the day if it鈥檚 not Nicaraguans talking to Nicaraguans, it鈥檚 not going to work.鈥�

鈥淭he U.S. government, as you all know, last week鈥� announced financial sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act鈥� We named three people that we know are directly involved in human rights abuses in Nicaragua鈥� We want the regime to know that we are going to hold them accountable today and tomorrow for human rights abuses and corruption鈥� We are going to continue to support the OAS鈥� actions; we鈥檙e going to continue to support the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights; we鈥檙e going to continue to support the National Dialogue.鈥�

鈥淭his is a real chance for the private sector, for instance, to step up. I think they have a large opportunity here to add influence with the regime, to make their voices heard, and to push as hard as they can for the negotiation process, the electoral process, and change.鈥澨�