澳门六合彩

President Vladimir Putin has made it his mission 鈥渢o save the Russian State,鈥� according to his 鈥淢illennium Message鈥� published on New Year鈥檚 Eve in 2000, said Clifford G. Gaddy, Senior Fellow of the Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution. Presenting his book co-authored by Fiona Hill, Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin, at an 18 March 2013 lecture at the Kennan Institute, Gaddy described the many dimensions of Putin鈥檚 character crucial to understanding Russia鈥檚 president as he starts his third term in office.

In order to understand what Putin鈥檚 goals are and how he expects to achieve them, we must consider where his ideas and his outlook came from, said Gaddy. Putin鈥檚 personal experiences may be the most significant factor in the development of his identity. For example, Putin was raised in post-war Leningrad, where his family and neighbors survived the Nazi siege. Another formative period was Putin鈥檚 career in the KGB under Yuri Andropov. Putin鈥檚 posting in Dresden, East Germany, which kept him outside of Russia during perestroika and the fall of the Soviet Union, was especially important, Gaddy said. All these experiences have contributed to the fabric of Putin鈥檚 identity.

Gaddy identified six layers to Putin鈥檚 identity: the 鈥淪tatist,鈥� the 鈥淪urvivalist,鈥� the 鈥淢an of History,鈥� the 鈥淥utsider,鈥� the Free Marketeer,鈥� and the 鈥淐ase Officer.鈥� According to Gaddy, the first three form the basis for his goals and priorities, while the last three explain his methods for achieving those goals. While the first three identities are shared with many Russians, especially those of Putin鈥檚 generation, the last three are what make Putin unique.

Putin鈥檚 identity as the 鈥淪tatist鈥� reflects his view that 鈥淩ussia must be a strong state and have a strong state apparatus.鈥� This core value solidified during his career in the KGB, and underpins his belief that Russia must protect its status as a great power. Putin鈥檚 鈥淪urvivalist鈥� identity is shared by many Russians who grew up in post-war Russia, particularly in Leningrad. It underscores his high prioritization of trust and the formation of close circles of friends and contacts. It further reflects Putin鈥檚 commitment to risk aversion and the strategic planning necessary to prepare for contingencies. Putin鈥檚 economic policies, especially his macro-fiscal policies, such as paying off foreign debt and building up financial reserves, exemplify this survivalist identity. Putin鈥檚 pursuit of policies that seem intended to thwart U.S. foreign policy goals may be also credibly interpreted not as an end, but as a means to accomplishing his real priority: 鈥渢he literal survival of the Russian state.鈥�

Putin as the 鈥淢an of History鈥� emphasizes his efforts to incorporate the lessons of history, as he sees them, into policy. It also explains his efforts to revise and control historical interpretation for the state purposes. Putin鈥檚 recent efforts to resurrect czarist-era historic societies is an attempt to bridge the divisions that were created by history in Russia and Russian society between its cultures and identities in order to create the perception that 鈥渨e are one history, we are one people.鈥�

Putin鈥檚 identity as an 鈥淥utsider鈥� is another manifestation of his time in St. Petersburg, both as a child and later as deputy mayor, as well as his experiences monitoring the situation in Russiaduring perestroika and the fall of the Soviet Union. Gaddy explained that these experiences contributed significantly to his pragmatism and objectivism toward the faults of the Soviet system, particularly its system of state ownership and central planning. 

Putin鈥檚 identity as a 鈥淔ree Marketer鈥� surfaces in his efforts to reform the Russian economy by embracing aspects of capitalism. Gaddy traced the development of this identity to Putin鈥檚 experience within the KGB under Andropov and its clear-eyed analysis of Soviet economic weakness. He also suggested that Putin鈥檚 time in Dresden may have been a factor, when Putin had the opportunity to compare the economic situations in East Germany and West Germany and see the advantages of the free market.

Putin the 鈥淐ase Officer鈥� makes it possible for Putin to find a compromise between the efficiency of the free market economy with the control paramount to the statist. Gaddy explained that the 鈥渃ase officer鈥� identity developed during Putin鈥檚 KGB work as an agent of influence in Dresden, tasked with 鈥渨orking with people,鈥� or developing and maintaining relationships with influential and powerful contacts. That skillset further developed during Putin鈥檚 term as deputy mayor of St. Petersburg in charge of economic development, and was fully on display during his first two terms as president, as he worked to ensure that energy companies would remain in private, but reliable hands, while the state would retain control of Russia鈥檚 natural resources and pipelines.

Putin believes that 鈥渢he literal survival of the Russian state is paramount,鈥� and the United States poses a threat to Russia, said Gaddy. That threat is not military, but one of creating divisions within Russian society, which is the greatest single threat Putin sees to the stability of the Russian state. Knowing that, and how Putin鈥檚 identities shape his goals, perceptions, and actions, can help provide 鈥減redictive power鈥� in dealing with Russia鈥檚 president, Gaddy concluded.

Mackensie Knorr
William Pomeranz, Acting Director, Kennan Institute