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Transatlantic Convergence or Divergence? QAnon after January Twentieth

This article was originally published at the .

With President Donald J. Trump leaving the Oval Office, a major tenet of the QAnon movement has been proven wrong: On January twentieth, the day of Joe Biden鈥檚 presidential inauguration, there were no mass arrests of Democrats, no enactment of martial law, and no 鈥淕reat Awakening.鈥 Prophecies of President Trump holding the 鈥渄eep state鈥 accountable didn鈥檛 come to pass, and the attempt to falsify the election results fell short.

The last few weeks have seen increased scrutiny of QAnon followers鈥攁nd for good reason. Not only were many of them on the front lines of the Capitol Riot on January sixth, but the movement also grew by leaps and bounds in 2020. History suggests that conspiracy movements, like viruses, are more likely to mutate and evolve, rather than disappear entirely. The key questions now are twofold: what are the most likely vectors of the QAnon movement post-Trump, and can democracies inoculate the majority of their citizens before new variants emerge and infect more of their populations?

QAnon will likely take unexpected turns and push new narratives, depending on the local context. Although the Q-conspiracy theory originated in the United States, it is worth underscoring that its appeal is global鈥攆rom to , countless citizens have gone down the rabbit hole and show no signs of breaking away from QAnon. Still, January 20th will have different consequences for American QAnon believers and their German counterparts. The following analysis aims to highlight the different expressions of QAnon and possible trajectories based on what research suggests about conspiratorial thinking.

The future of QAnon in Germany

In the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic, the QAnon movement has swept from the United States to Germany. Today, Germany has the highest number of Q-followers and sympathizers outside the United States, according to the anti-racist advocacy group . In the last year, membership in German QAnon-Telegram channels has more than sixfold鈥攆rom around 20,000 to 122,000 subscribers. While not every subscriber of a QAnon channel may identify as a Q-follower in the strict sense, a closer look at the German-language Telegram group 鈥 shows that roughly half of the group members also actively participate in 鈥淨-friendly鈥 chat discussions.

The topics discussed in German QAnon groups focus heavily on U.S. politics and echo American narratives about President Trump鈥檚 grandeur, the Democratic Party鈥檚 corruption, the treason of Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi, and Joe Biden鈥檚 supposedly illegitimate presidency. A lot of the German group members celebrated the Capitol Riot for the Q-movement. If there is talk of Germany, the coronavirus crisis is front and center. Most narratives revolve around the government manipulating the masses in its attempts to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Recently, vaccination efforts have attracted attention, usually framed as forced and deadly attacks on the population. Sharing disinformation about vaccination incidents where people experienced complications or passed away, devoid of the necessary context, has become a staple of active Q-group members.

A striking聽feature of the German Q-movement is its overlap with other groups that have formed during the pandemic. Much of the QAnon content in Germany is shared across channels, originating from the telegram groups of or (two of the most organized Corona-skeptical movements in Germany). The QAnon movement seems to benefit from its flexibility and vagueness, enabling followers to integrate topics that are also promoted in other鈥攐ften far-right鈥攇roups. Ideologically, there is a visible connection to right-wing extremist groups, such as the 鈥,鈥 and right-wing extremist public figures, such as conspiracy theorists and.

In the case of the QAnon movement, sympathizers with a 鈥渃onspiracy mentality鈥澛燾an easily integrate original QAnon narratives and other conspiracy theories.

However, synergies between QAnon and other right-wing conspiracy theorists are hardly a new phenomenon. The anti-lockdown demonstrations in 2020 featured a number of protesters waving (symbol of right-wing extremist groups), which also included visible references to the letter Q. Another striking resemblance to Germany鈥檚 鈥淩eichsb眉rger鈥 movement is an obsession with prepping: hoarding weapons and food to be prepared for the collapse of 鈥渢he system,鈥 which believers expect to happen any day now. Further obvious between the QAnon and the 鈥淩eichsb眉rger鈥 movements are anti-Semitic narratives of the ongoing 鈥淛ewish world conspiracy,鈥 the narrative of the state as the enemy of the people, and fervent hopes for regaining 鈥渢rue鈥 national sovereignty.

This theoretical flexibility that combines seemingly unrelated elements of various conspiracy theories is referred to as 鈥渃onspiracy mentality.鈥 Psychologists consider it a stable personality attribution or trait. A manifest 鈥渃onspiracy mentality鈥 leads to changes in thought processes and frames of understanding the world, enabling an individual to see plausible connections between even unrelated conspiracy theories. In the case of the QAnon movement, sympathizers with a 鈥渃onspiracy mentality鈥澛燾an easily integrate original QAnon narratives and other conspiracy theories. This mentality serves as the productive driver of an ever denser, albeit not necessarily more logical, web of conspiracy theories.

As of now, there is no indication that QAnon might disappear from the German stage altogether.

Despite 鈥淨鈥檚鈥 silence since December 8, 2020, the German QAnon groups remain active, primarily focusing on the coronavirus pandemic and the related topics. After the Capitol riots, the German Bundesamt f眉r Verfassungsschutz (the domestic intelligence service of the Federal Republic of Germany) started targeting and paying attention to the development within the German Q-groups. Despite the many false predictions about the U.S. election, QAnon鈥檚 popularity hasn鈥檛 waned. The movement鈥檚 conceptual flexibility increases its chances to latch on to older or new conspiracy theory groups.

As of now, there is no indication that QAnon might disappear from the German stage altogether. In fact, QAnon is only the most recent in a long line of 鈥渁wakening鈥 movements, which have demonstrated remarkable resilience to false prophecies. When looking back at other conspiracy-driven movements and cults, parallels can be drawn to Jehovah鈥檚 Witnesses who predicted Judgment Day three times (1874, 1914, and 1925). Each time, they proclaimed that all infidels were to be wiped from the face of the earth. Judgement Day, however, never came.

Notwithstanding these false prophecies, the movement did not experience a massive decline in membership and quietly decided to keep the date of Judgment Day flexible. This example illustrates a basic principle: the more ideologically committed a movement is in a particular cause or prophecy, the more unlikely it is to change course, even in the face of logical flaws and otherwise fatal setbacks.

The future of QAnon in the United States

The role of President Trump as a martyr holds more significance for American QAnon followers than for German QAnon followers. Trump has been labeled as the inadvertent 鈥渃ult leader鈥 of QAnon, although he does not direct the conspiracy theory. As a consequence, Trump鈥檚 behavior and actions in the future will shape the direction of the QAnon movement. While Trump (and Q himself) has been quiet for the last weeks, it does seem likely that the former president will seek to gain exposure through a new platform. It remains to be seen whether Trump will pursue his public 鈥渃omeback鈥 by commandeering an online platform like , buying a conspiratorial outlet such as One America Network (OAN), or starting his own TV channel.

Cults tend to fall apart following the . Given that President Trump most likely will want to stay in the public eye, the new tenets of this mega-conspiracy-theory will likely take cues from his actions and words. Even if the original source of QAnon 鈥 the so called 鈥淨-Drops鈥 鈥 falls silent, as seems to be the case, Trump and Republican politicians like Marjory Taylor Green, who have perfected conspiracy politics, will give Q-followers enough fodder to 鈥渟tick with the plan,鈥 as they would say.

Another factor for QAnon in the United States is the pandemic. Similar to Germany, opposition to mask mandates, vaccines, and any sort of governmental regulation tied to public health is already an essential doctrine for the majority of QAnon believers. It is not surprising that one of the biggest recruiting tools of QAnon in 2020 was a propaganda video with the title 鈥淧landemic.鈥 Even if Trump鈥檚 role within QAnon diminishes, the conspiratorial content revolving around vaccines will thrive for the foreseeable future as countries try to get a handle on COVID-19.

This mega-conspiracy theory is not only resilient; it threatens to undermine our social fabric, distort our understanding of reality, and cloud our perceptions of what distinguishes a truth from a lie.

A different path for QAnon鈥攚ith less focus on President Trump鈥檚 role鈥攚ould lead further down the white supremacy route. Already we are seeing the first signs of this. The next big date for QAnon Followers is , when President Trump is supposed to be sworn into office as the 19th president of the United States, not the 46th. The date derives from the , which believes that a law enacted in 1871 turned the U.S. government into a corporation. Prior to the passing of this law, the inauguration was always held on March 4th.

Similar to the German 鈥淩eichsb眉rger鈥-Bewegung, the members of the sovereign citizen movement do not acknowledge the sovereignty of the state or its laws. Loosely organized, the movement has gained traction since the beginning of the pandemic and will likely continue to do so, given that a substantial percentage of Republican voters refuse to accept the election results and therefore deny the legitimacy of the current government. In short, the same tendencies鈥攁nti-elitism, anti-government, anti-institutionalism鈥攎anifest themselves on both sides of the Atlantic.

These new strains of conspiratorial content provide fertile ground for the QAnon movement. This mega-conspiracy theory is not only resilient; it threatens to undermine our social fabric, distort our understanding of reality, and cloud our perceptions of what distinguishes a truth from a lie. During the last years, boundaries have been torn down, norms have shifted, and conspiracy theorists have linked arms with violent, fascist, and far-right groups. This is one virus that won鈥檛 stay dormant for long.


Imhoff, R., & Bruder, M. (2014). Speaking (Un-)Truth to Power: Conspiracy Mentality as a Generalised Political Attitude. European Journal of Personality, 28(1), 25鈥43.

Krek贸, P. (2020). Countering conspiracy theories and misinformation. In M. Butter & P. G. Knight (Hrsg.), Routledge Handbook Of Conspiracy Theories (S. 242鈥256). Routledge

Alfred Moore, On the Democratic Problem of Conspiracy Politics, in: Joseph E. Uscinski (ed.), Conspiracy Theories & the People Who Believe Them, Oxford University Press.


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