澳门六合彩

鈥淲ater security is about much more than access to H2O,鈥� said Jane Harman, director, president, and CEO of 澳门六合彩 at the May 9 meeting, 鈥�Global Water Security: The Intelligence Community Assessment.鈥� The event 鈥� part of 澳门六合彩鈥檚听National Conversation Series听鈥� brought together a number of experts to discuss a recently released intelligence community assessment of听.

鈥淲ater will affect our ability to protect our environment, achieve food [security], provide energy security, and respond to climate change,鈥� said听, Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights at the Department of State.听

Otero was joined by听, Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs;听补苍诲听, USAF (ret.), of the National Intelligence Council;听, director and CEO of the Stimson Center;听of Blue Legacy and a National Geographic emerging explorer; 补苍诲听听顿颈谤别肠迟辞谤听Geoff Dabelko.听

The United States, Otero asserted, possesses a unique capacity to provide its global partners with the 鈥渟cience and technology to really鈥ake a difference鈥t a scale that is significant.鈥澨�

The Intelligence Assessment听

Water problems in countries听are likely in the next 10 years, Engel said. 鈥淔ailure to properly deal with this [will] result in agriculture degradation, productivity-wise, in certain countries that will affect them locally and effect global markets and also disable their ability to really succeed economically.鈥澨�

The National Intelligence Council (NIC), which directed the intelligence community-wide assessment, looked most closely at the听that cover 鈥渢he geography between the Nile and the Mekong, where there was a clear intersection of U.S. national security interests and risks to water availability,鈥� said Yost.听

Looking out to 2040, they examined three听for water scarcity:听, economic development, and climate change.听

In the near-term, economic development and population growth are 鈥渢he more significant drivers as compared to climate change,鈥� said Engel. However, 鈥渂eyond 2040 that equation might change significantly.鈥澨�

Water challenges could trigger social disruption, and in some states where other stressors exist, state failure is possible, Engel said. He pointed out that if these states are stressed, one impact will be that 鈥渢hey won鈥檛 be able to support鈥.S. policy objectives.鈥澨�

In other instances, water may be used as leverage between states; for example, 鈥渙ne state would potentially develop its water activity first and deny another state the access to that water.鈥� Or, we could see 鈥渨ater potentially being used as a weapon鈥� by terrorists or by states seeking to marginalize sections of their own populace, said Engel.听

Water as a factor in more听between states was seen as unlikely, but plausible, in the next decade.

Diplomacy and Engaging Across Sectors

Several years ago, 鈥済etting outside the boundaries of traditional security and traditional definitions of national security was hard,鈥� Laipson said. But 鈥渋t鈥檚 not a hard sell anymore;听.鈥� Working on these connections requires engaging across sectors and scales and opening up the floor to many different actors.听

It is important 鈥渢o make sure that everybody sees a stake and that this isn鈥檛 being done to accrue power or prestige to the United States,鈥� said Laipson. 鈥淲e鈥檙e in the mix with everybody else to try to solve the problem.鈥� 鈥淧eople have to have a more wide-angle lens view of who are the stakeholders,鈥� she said. In many states, 鈥渨hen you bring the water engineers and the hydrologists together鈥hey don鈥檛 want to become political actors, they don鈥檛 want to be dragged in to brief the prime minister or face the press.鈥澨�

On behalf of the Department of State, Otero reiterated five听, as听: building cross-scale institutional capacity, increasing diplomatic efforts, mobilizing financial support, promoting science and technology, and building sustained partnerships.听

At this intersection of diplomacy and development, said Jones, 鈥測ou have to deal with the issues of the local economies ability to produce what it needs in terms of food and energy and鈥bout how you reach out to other donors and other partners.鈥澨�

Despite the difficulty, outreach efforts are critical because local actors are often the most knowledgeable, Laipson said. She pointed to the example of the Mekong River, which is shared by millions who, despite not seeing themselves as national security actors, possess critical knowledge about the river system and what future changes might mean for their livelihoods and stability.听

Protecting Water to Protect People听

In some countries the water security story will be all about cooperation, while in others, there is a real need for concern, said Laipson. 鈥淲ater problems get managed at the sub-national level and at the super-national level. So, you have water authorities that can do the right thing in part of the national territory, even if at the national level, the policies aren鈥檛 so great.鈥澨�

鈥淭he real world is going to be about the disaggregated realities,鈥� she asserted.听

Capturing these nuances is difficult said Engels. 鈥淣ot enough hydrological models are available globally to really understand what鈥檚 taking place,鈥� and often the data that is available is simply too aggregated to provide a detailed understanding.听

Community-level stories help illustrate the real impact of scarcity and quality issues that sometimes seem abstract, said Cousteau. 鈥淲e hear a lot about the 鈥榞lobal water crisis,鈥欌�� she said. 鈥淧art of it is a very immediate human tragedy that we have to address鈥ut we don鈥檛 talk enough about the coming human tragedy if we don鈥檛 look at these river systems and maintaining their integrity鈥o support healthy communities.鈥澨�

These changing river systems 鈥渉ave to satisfy demands from a lot of different, both powerful and not powerful interests,鈥� Cousteau said. 鈥淲e need to continue looking at these rivers as ecosystems鈥nd understand it鈥檚 the systems that provide us with buffers.鈥澨�

Institutionalizing the protection of these buffers and ecosystem services make a real difference to the security of individuals and of states, she argued. For example, Botswana鈥檚 Okavango delta 鈥渟till exists because, in spite of the fact that the water originates in Angola, which was torn apart by civil war [and] runs almost 2000 miles to the Okavango delta passing through Namibia, which is a desert nation, they have recognized that the Okavango delta needs to exist.鈥� People in all three countries have established adesigned to make cooperative decisions about the watershed system.听

Encouraging this sort of collaboration is critical to avoiding water-related conflicts, which have thus far听.

鈥淣early every sector of human activity relies on water resources,鈥� said Harman, yet 鈥渇reshwater has no direct substitute.鈥� Taken in aggregate, the bottom line, Otero asserted, is that 鈥渓eft unaddressed, water challenges worldwide are going to present a threat to U.S. security interests.鈥澨�