澳门六合彩

Saudi frustration with US foreign policy

Saudi Arabia has been assertive in its oil production levels because it does not want to sacrifice future prosperity, Stephen Kalin explained. This assertiveness is largely in response to the United States鈥� wavering commitment to the region. 鈥淭he Saudis, particularly [two years] into the Biden administration, feel that every 12-18 months they have to face a reassessment. They have started to turn that language around and say - maybe we should be considering a reassessment of our own.鈥�

Bessma Momani affirmed Kalin鈥檚 statements, adding that, as the world鈥檚 top seller of oil, the US feels as though it is a 鈥渉egemonic power,鈥� but 鈥渢he Saudis know they are the number one buyer. This is a buyer鈥檚 market too - why do we need to sacrifice our own national economic development plans when we pay hard cash for all this weaponry?鈥�

Saudi policy is also shaped by renewed nationalism and ambition to take greater control over economic development. As Momani states, 鈥淭hey are not going to be at the beck and call of the United States鈥�  they have a population hungry for job opportunities. There is simply too much demand for the capital that would come from the export to cut it.鈥�

According to David Ottaway, the change in presidential leadership in America further complicates US-Saudi relations. 鈥淧resident Trump twice tried to get the Saudis to either increase or decrease their oil production.鈥� However, Momani contended that speculations over emphasized Saudi preference for a republican administration over democratic one. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 an American exceptionalist argument. From your perspective, it looks as though everything is decided in Riyadh through the prism of the midterm elections, but it鈥檚 just simply not,鈥� adding, 鈥渢here鈥檚 enough going on in the global economy in Saudi Arabia that determine their actions.鈥�

Kalin explained that because the oil market is so interconnected, the price of Saudi oil still has an impact on the price of gas, despite the US鈥� waning dependence on oil exports from the Gulf country. This creates misunderstanding and leaves each side 鈥渄ivorced from economic reality,鈥� according to Kalin.

Russia-Saudi cooperation and reactions from the Arab world

Guy Laron argued that the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia is a 鈥渓imited partnership, not an alliance.鈥� However, the partnership is still surprising due to the historical presence of rivalry between the two countries. 鈥淭he more Russia becomes isolated in the world arena, the more it is sanctioned, it finds that it needs new alliances,鈥� he offered. 鈥淩ight now, their interests align, so they cooperate. But if the terms and conditions of the oil market change, we can see this partnership unravel fairly quickly.鈥� Momani added that the Russia-Saudi relationship is a 鈥渇unctional, good relationship,鈥� and that Russia played a big part in creating a successful OPEC model.

Other countries in the MENA region are connected to Russia, with the UAE acting as a destination for Russian oligarchs. Despite the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global food market, Momani argued, 鈥淭hey feel that Putin is going to live up to what he said he鈥檚 going to do. There is this unfortunate respect for Putin in that way. I hate to say it, but they at least feel that you鈥檙e getting a consistent perspective.鈥� They also know the war will eventually end, and thus they want to maintain strong relations with Putin.

Prospects for the future

Kalin anticipated December 5 will see a 鈥渃onfluence of events with unexpected impact鈥� when EU sanctions are implemented, in addition to the OPEC meeting on December 4 and the prospective visits between China and Saudi Arabia throughout the month.

The shift in US-Saudi relations reflects changing foreign alliances. As Kalin stated, 鈥淲e are seeing more communication, alignment, and engagement between countries that are in the G20鈥nd they鈥檙e increasingly confident and happy to work with each other, and not so happy with the global order that鈥檚 been in place for the past two decades.鈥�

Laron and Momani both predicted that Russia will continue to bypass sanctions by having oil customers in Saudi Arabia, India, China, and Turkey. 鈥淚 doubt that, in terms of the tense relationship with Washington, Saudi Arabia and Russia would announce it formally. It would work much better if it would remain a clandestine arrangement between them,鈥� Laron argued.

The panelists ultimately agreed that we must wait to see the impacts of the OPEC and EU changes when they go into effect in December.