澳门六合彩

Climate change and conflict can create a self-reinforcing feedback loop: Climate change exacerbates existing conflicts, while conflict makes adapting to climate change more difficult, said聽听辞蹿听聽at 澳门六合彩 on聽February 7.

She presented the results of 聽聽conducted in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal to find how communities are affected by and adapting to climate change in conflict-prone settings.

Vivekananda said that although the relationship between climate change and conflict has gained much attention recently, 鈥渂road brush鈥� research doesn鈥檛 capture the nuances that International Alert鈥檚 partners saw on the ground in South Asia.

Reflecting Granularity, Recognizing Commonalities

鈥淭hese kinds of issues aren鈥檛 generalizable at the national level,鈥� Vivekananda said. Political systems or even microclimates can distinguish one community from another. 鈥淵ou do need to understand this granularity if you want to ensure the impact of the policies you鈥檙e trying to implement, namely effective adaptation that鈥檚 targeted at the most marginalized and vulnerable communities in affected countries.鈥�

鈥淚 think it鈥檚 extremely helpful to have this type of study that has a much finer resolution,鈥� said聽, director of environmental security at the聽. Smaller-scale case studies can help tease out complexities and variability at the local level, he said. And sensitivity to the distinct situations of each community is important for policymakers, 鈥渂ecause getting it wrong will have a disproportionate impact on peace and security in these contexts.鈥�

The case studies took place in very diverse contexts. Some were urban communities, some mountainous, some coastal. But Vivekananda noted that 鈥渢here were a surprising number of really strong threads鈥� across all four countries.

For example, many of the communities face compound risks. The community members most vulnerable to climate change are also those least able to adapt to it. Vivekananda described how poorer tenant farmers were less able to adopt climate resistant crops and farming techniques than wealthier landowners, for instance. And a doctor鈥檚 job is less dependent on the rainy season than a farmer鈥檚.

Along these lines, education 鈥渋sn鈥檛 something that would necessarily be seen as a climate adaptation strategy,鈥� but it can make a big difference, Vivekananda said. Better access to and quality of education increases 鈥渢he chances of the next generation not having to pursue highly climate sensitive agricultural livelihoods,鈥� the report authors wrote.

Migration a Double-Edged Sword

According to Vivekananda, migration was found in all the areas studied but has been 鈥渋gnored in all climate change and development plans.鈥�

For some communities, like those in Nepal, migration is viewed positively and community members rely heavily on remittances. For others, like in Bangladesh, the impact on families and societies can sometimes outweigh the financial benefits. But in all cases, migration is seen as a 鈥渟ignificant adaptive strategy鈥� and Vivekenanda argued that it鈥檚 one that should be聽聽in adaptation plans.

Michel agreed that it鈥檚 crucial to examine migration, but suggested that this complex issue is not always a positive adaptive strategy. In Nepal, for example, migration can be positive for communities experiencing climate stress, but negative for the聽, like Kathmandu, which are often聽. 鈥淭he pollution is awful, the water quality is terrible, there are huge pressures on the infrastructure,鈥� he said.

Additionally, climate change in the region is leading to greater water scarcity and degradation in some places, and聽聽that was once acceptable can now lead to conflict as pastoralists compete for grazing land with agriculturalists. Michel highlighted聽聽from the Pakistan case study where people from the Thar desert have been barred from their traditional seasonal migration to nearby Badin by local residents due to declining vegetation cover.

Integration a Realistic Imperative?

鈥淚f there鈥檚 one issue that ties climate change and conflict together in South Asia, it鈥檚 water,鈥� said senior advisor for natural resource management at USAID鈥檚聽听补苍诲听听叠耻谤别补耻蝉,听. It is 鈥溾�� in many conflict-affected communities and could also, she said. Changing weather patterns mean less rainfall; retreating glaciers and snowpack are already decreasing downstream flows; and monsoons are less predictable. At the same time, demand for water is growing because of increases in population and water use, particularly by industry in the region.

USAID is looking to address these issues with an 鈥渋ntegrated approach that recognizes this dynamic鈥�. Melynk highlighted how USAID鈥檚 water security efforts increase food security, decrease susceptibility to extreme weather events, and聽聽that can result from competition over water.

鈥淲e also recognize, not only is [water management] complex, but we also have scarce resources,鈥� Melnyk continued. 鈥淲e鈥檙e looking for multiple benefits in our interventions.鈥�

鈥溾�業ntegrated鈥� water resources management is the way to go,鈥� agreed Michel. 鈥淲ho would be for 鈥榝ragmented鈥� and 鈥榓d hoc鈥� water resources management?鈥� But 鈥渋ntegration is probably working better as an incantation than it is in implementation,鈥� he continued. 鈥淚f you want to move on from the verbiage of 鈥榠ntegrated water resources management,鈥� you have to ask, 鈥榳ell, what鈥檚 being integrated? How many sectors are we talking about? Who are the stakeholders?鈥欌��

Where there are competing interests, choices have to be made. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 where it鈥檚 so important to identify the granularity, the complexity, the local implications. Because we have to be aware of what interests are being favored in the power relationships that may exist within these decision-making structures.鈥�

Preparing for Known Unknowns

Part of the challenge in planning for climate change adaptation is the lack of available data in South Asia. Michel pointed out that the inhospitable landscape of the region makes it difficult to gather information. 鈥淭here are more weather stations in Switzerland than the entire Tibetan Plateau which is 60 times its size,鈥� he said to illustrate his point. 聽鈥淗ow are we going to adapt, how are we going to build resilience if we don鈥檛 even know what we鈥檙e building resiliency to?鈥�

While the panelists agreed there was a need for better information about how exactly the environment is changing, they also pointed out that there are many aspects of climate change that are, by their nature, unpredictable, and adaptation plans should reflect this聽.

The case studies offered a few general recommendations for improving resilience, including considering planned migration as a valid option, encouraging private sector involvement in alternative livelihoods creation, and improving access to quality education to allow community members to be less dependent on climate-sensitive livelihoods like farming and fishing.

鈥淏uilding resilience should help address the root causes of vulnerability, creating increased capacity to be able to adapt to a range of possible climate futures,鈥� said Vivekananda. If adaptation efforts are too narrowly focused on 鈥渟pecific climate impacts鈥� and 鈥渢hey don鈥檛 play out, in a fragile context that could be quite destabilizing and seen as a wasted opportunity.鈥�

鈥淲e want to make our systems not only resilient,鈥� Michel said, 鈥渂ut robust to change.鈥�

Case studies for India, Pakistan, and Nepal, and an executive summary of the research can be found on.听

Drafted by Carolyn Lamere, edited by Schuyler Null