澳门六合彩

Between the Sahara to the north and savanna to the south lies the semi-arid Sahel, a region stretching from Senegal to Sudan that has experienced desperate poverty, climate change, malnutrition, and violence. While every context is different, the Sahelian countries share some common challenges, including a pattern of recurring crises and fluid borders. Boko Haram鈥檚 reign of terror in northern Nigeria and Mali鈥檚 coup have both had cross-border components.

A 鈥渕ultisectoral approach that includes gender, population, nutrition, climate change adaptation, conflict management, and humanitarian response must come together,鈥� said Roger-Mark De Souza, director of population, environmental security, and resilience. He was joined by a more than a dozen experts, including former U.S. Ambassador to Niger Bisa Williams, at 澳门六合彩 on听听to go 鈥渂eyond the headlines鈥� in this troubled region and discuss some of the underlying trends driving instability.

Deconstructing Chronic Vulnerability

Recurring zones of drought throughout the Sahel have contributed to record levels of hunger. More than 20 million people went food insecure and 4.7 million experienced acute malnutrition in 2014, said De Souza. In 2012,听听were at risk of starving across eight countries. The Sahel is particularly vulnerable to rainfall variability, land degradation, and desertification due to its high dependence on rain-fed agriculture and livestock, according to a听. Climate change is introducing even more unpredictability in water and food availability.

To address this 鈥�,鈥� USAID has launched several projects aimed at reducing poverty and improving food security, said De Souza. The听听aims to reduce severe to moderately hungry households by 20 percent, he said, improve the nutrition of 1.5 million children under five, increase off-farm income by $12 million and vulnerable household assets by $10 million, and improve natural resource management across 2 million hectares of land.

Development strategies must also address听. The Sahel is the听听region of the world with听听ranging between 4.1 and 7.6 children per woman. Without improved access to family planning resources, the regional population of 80 million is projected to climb above 400 million by 2060, said Benoit Kalasa, director of the UN Population Fund鈥檚 technical division. Sixty percent of the population is expected to reside in cities by 2020 and 67 percent will be less than 25 years old.

Combined with environmental change 鈥� both climate and non-climate related 鈥� such rapid growth is threatening the viability of traditional livelihoods. 鈥淭he economy in the Sahel, and Niger in particular, is based on agriculture and also animal husbandry,鈥� said Sani Ayouba Abdou, founder and director of听(鈥淵oung Volunteers for the Environment鈥�), a Nigerien NGO. As these ways of life become less viable more young people are migrating to urban areas. To address youth unemployment, his organization has partnered with the听听to fund entrepreneurial proposals by young people to develop new rural businesses and expand job opportunities, including climate-smart agriculture to help young people adapt but continue producing food.

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Gender Dynamics

Sahelian women are disproportionately impacted by these population and environment dynamics. 鈥淐oping mechanisms are highly gendered,鈥� said Sylvia Cabus, gender advisor for USAID鈥檚听. During hard times, in their capacity as providers for the family, women often reduce their own nutritional intake and may even sell personal assets or engage in sexual bartering to secure food. Others are forced to remove children from school or encourage early marriage to reduce household size, said Cabus.

It鈥檚 a 鈥渧ery patriarchal culture where women and girls have low status,鈥� she said. Of the 10 worst countries to be a mother or a child, 4 鈥� Mali, Niger, The Gambia, and Chad 鈥� are located in the Sahel,听.

Unlike other parts of Africa, many women in the Sahel actually听, which presents a challenge for efforts to expand reproductive health services. More than 222 million women worldwide have an unmet need for modern contraceptives, according to听, but contraceptive use in West and Central Africa recorded no increase between 2008 and 2012.

According to Kalasa, who previously directed UNFPA鈥檚 regional office for West and Central Africa, the lack of uptake for contraceptives is muddled by poor education and lack of agency. Only one in two girls will attend school in West and Central Africa and more than 70 percent of girls are out of school in Chad and Niger, according to听. 鈥淓nsuring that the girls, they are well educated, they stay in school, that the women, they have the means to be economically and financially independent, unless you do that then they cannot be in the position to claim their rights to information and services,鈥� said Kalasa. 鈥淚f there is no education, if there is no economic empowerment of girls and women, the demand will not be there.鈥�

鈥淭here鈥檚 a war on women in terms of her ability to control her body and in terms of her ability to be able to support her family,鈥� said Bisa Williams, former U.S. ambassador to Niger and current deputy assistant secretary in the Bureau of African Affairs. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a war on women when girls can go to school and take an exam and then be swept off to who knows where and nobody even bats an eye. There鈥檚 a war on women when girls are being forced to marry early, have no say in whether or not they鈥檙e going to marry, and/or are听听because somebody else decides that鈥檚 what needs to happen to them.鈥�

Maaike van Min, Sahel strategic lead for听, which provides sexual and reproductive health services to hundreds of thousands of women in the Sahel, said they find women are receptive when they reach them on the ground. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 actually listen to the woman enough about what she wants,鈥� she said. 鈥淏y listening to her we can see that it actually isn鈥檛 impossible to provide these services鈥e鈥檝e dealt with the angry husband a lot, but we have also dealt with even more the woman who will come [to the clinic] despite her husband.鈥�

Demographic Dividend or Danger?

Improving the status of women and girls is critical to turning the region鈥檚 economies around, said Sameera Maziad Al Tuwaijri, senior health advisor for the World Bank鈥檚. The aim of the project is to help Sahelian countries prepare for a window of opportunity called the 鈥渄emographic dividend.鈥�

As population age structures mature there can be a two to three decade period where the proportion of working age people to dependents is larger than usual. 鈥淭he change in the age structure can lead to economic boost if actually used the way it should be,鈥� said Tuwaijiri, as happened for the 鈥淎sian Tigers鈥� last century. Achieving this dividend, however, requires both a听听and opportunity for young people in terms of education and jobs.

鈥淩oughly one in four children in the world are growing up in Africa,鈥� said听Jack Goldstone, a Wilson Center fellow and听. 鈥淏y midcentury, it will be about 40 percent. The education, the socialization, and the stability of young people of this region of the world are going to be the dominant issue for conflicts in the years ahead.鈥�

Effective, inclusive governments are able to provide education, which leads to declining fertility rates, which in turns leads to greater investment in young people per capita. 鈥淎s youth feel they have more control over their own destinies, they鈥檙e more likely to do more constructive group activities,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e less likely to be drawn to deviant or extremist movements out of anger or frustration. They鈥檙e more likely to be engaged in building society and strengthening it.鈥�

鈥淭here鈥檚 a big difference between 2 million people living in Amsterdam and 2 million people living in refugee camps,鈥� Goldstone said. 鈥淥ne group is achieving great potential, the other is a constant source of frustration because it鈥檚 unable to.鈥�

Globally,听80 percent听of new conflicts originate in countries with youthful populations, said, a Wilson Center global fellow and demographer in residence at the Stimson Center. There鈥檚 also a strong relationship between听, according to Cincotta. 鈥淵outhful countries lose liberal democracies at quite a rapid rate,鈥� he said, and in youthful countries that do achieve democracy, it is听. 鈥淢ore than half of them are gone [within] 10 years,鈥� he said. Reaching a median age of 26 tends to be a critical point at which it starts to become more likely a country can achieve and maintain democracy. The median age of all Sahelian states is听.

Getting through the demographic transition is important and necessary to achieve political stability, said Cincotta. 鈥淟ower fertility results in higher social spending by both the state and by parents on education,鈥� he said. 鈥淚ncome feeds back into education because as income goes up kids stay in school longer.鈥� These changes and others, like increasing gender equity, result in a higher median age and a society more likely to achieve a functioning democracy.

The region鈥檚 demography is also combining with economic inequality in unusual ways. Inequality tends to be higher in those Sahelian countries where fertility rates are below six children per woman compared to those where it remains higher, said听, a development sociology professor at Cornell University. This raises the potential for what he called an 鈥渦neven demographic dividend,鈥� where the rich have much greater opportunity than the poor. 鈥淐lass differences in demographic behavior translate into inequality among children, and these inequalities work their way throughout adulthood,鈥� he said.

The differences in opportunity are most acute among peers. As young people transition from school to work and some go on to very different lives, it can brew frustration and disillusionment among those left behind, which in turn may trigger violence, said Eloundou-Enyegue.

A Holistic Approach

鈥淭he drivers of extremism and their insecurity and response applications have to be considered holistically,鈥� said听, an advisor on countering violent extremism in USAID鈥檚听. 鈥淪ome hold very strong views that no development agency should work in the nexus of security and militarism,鈥� but 鈥渃lose to 60 percent of State and USAID鈥檚 foreign assistance goes to 50 countries that are in the midst of or trying to prevent conflict and state failure.鈥� Development agencies are therefore听.

USAID is buffering communities against drought, famine, violent extremism, and other shocks by trying to work specifically with those most likely to be influenced or recruited by extremist groups, like impoverished young people, as well as groups 鈥渢hat can provide mentorship and guidance to support community stability,鈥� Datta said.

After the drought and food crisis in 2012, USAID also formed a 鈥溾�� for the Sahel. 鈥淧opulation pressure, climate change, food price spikes, and weak governance were driving the same communities into crisis year after year,鈥� said听, acting assistant administrator for USAID鈥檚听. The cell is meant to coordinate humanitarian response with longer-term development objectives, reducing the region鈥檚 鈥渆mergency caseload鈥� by at least 1 million people by 2017. We now assume droughts are likely, he said, rather than hoping it doesn鈥檛 happen, for example.

Other organizations are working to build trust within societies. 鈥淪ocial systems can create value even when an economic system isn鈥檛 there,鈥� said听, senior program manager for the听听at the Search for Common Ground. The NGO works to prevent conflict by organizing community forums that bring together local leaders and state officials to discuss security issues. They also make a special effort to engage young people to help them integrate socially and have a voice, Jobbins said. They鈥檝e found comedic skits and role playing have been especially effective at diffusing tensions at the community level and addressing gender issues.

A Window of Opportunity

As the world has turned its focus on the Sahel, there is a window of opportunity to 鈥渞eframe our resilience paradigm鈥� and focus on chronic conditions, said De Souza. The overarching driver of crisis is not a food deficit, but a 鈥渞esilience deficit.鈥�

Development organizations and governments should focus on community engagement, women鈥檚 empowerment, and social integration of young people, the panelists urged. 鈥淓mpowering women and couples with education and appropriate resources helps reduce pressure on natural resources and promote long-term environmental gains,鈥� said Alexandra Todd, a senior technical advisor in USAID鈥檚听. 鈥淭here can be no development without women and women cannot fully participate in development if their reproductive health needs are not met.鈥�

An integrated approach can help mitigate conflict over scarce resources and enable communities to break the cycle of chronic crisis. 鈥淲hether it鈥檚 in northern Mali or the Lake Chad Basin, security challenges cannot be overcome if they are not tied to meaningful progress on the drivers of conflict: economic development, education, environment, [and] democratic freedoms,鈥� said Ambassador Williams. 鈥淚ncreasingly we are seeing greater focus on the nexus of security and development, but still more needs to be done.鈥�

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Written by Carley Chavara, Theo Wilson, and Schuyler Null, edited by Schuyler Null.

Photo Credit:听, courtesy of Marco Dormino/UN Photo.