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Post-AMLO? The North American Semiconductor Opportunity

Gerardo Penchyna

Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador's (AMLO) presidency will end on October 1st, 2024. His successor will inherit a country that is more than when he assumed office. More interestingly, however, the country will face a series of enviable opportunities amid Washington's "decoupling" from Beijing. Primarily, AMLO's successor should take advantage of 鈥渄e-risking鈥 policy efforts by the U.S. government to try to insert Mexico into semiconductor manufacturing supply chains. Cooperation on this issue would revitalize while empowering Mexico's geostrategic relevance.聽

Unlike other areas of untapped opportunity in the Americas, semiconductor development enjoys political and expanding . An aligned North American bloc holds the potential to advance hemispheric efforts in two areas: and . Mexico can make a real difference in the of this complex supply chain. Yet AMLO's sexenio has illustrated a painful on energy matters. Consequently, efforts such as the remain undervalued. Without the adoption of a more inclusive approach to balancing Mexico's energy sector, potential will prevail lackluster. To be precise, without the key integration of to feed forward-looking manufacturing, the country will find itself at a loss.聽

At the heart of growing great-power competition, semiconductor chips are one of the most critical elements of the global economy. This industry is to the proposed by the Biden administration. U.S.-China 鈥攁nd the risk of the People鈥檚 Republic of China (PRC) weaponizing its inputs of chip production鈥攈as prompted countries to technological resilience. This phenomenon is captured by recent U.S. such as the $52 billion CHIPS and Science Act, which, according to the (SIA) galvanized new investments worth more than $200 billion. Still, it is how planned investment will be allocated across foreign markets.聽

聽Chip foundations have been built in East Asia for over 30 years, and will prove . The substantial fixed investments that are needed for these projects, as by the PRC鈥檚 industrial efforts, underscore that there is no guarantee of success in this high-cost industry. At the same time, U.S. officials are likely to already stringent to try to harness their own position. That being said, if North America fails to design a geoeconomic strategy that for both minerals sourcing and supply chain cultivation, the region could suffer from the of economic nationalism.聽

A broader Mexico-U.S. strategy and even expand supply chain networks in the United States. Tens of billions of dollars of investment have already been into contiguous states, Arizona and Texas. Capitalizing 鈥渘earshoring momentum鈥 and cementing chip projects in Mexico could enhance these initiatives. Success, however, will depend on the next administration's ability to address growing . Until then, Mexican diplomats will struggle to sway U.S. officials and companies to allocate new funds for designated projects. A robust strategy will require facilitating the production of more sustainable and reliable energy sources鈥攚hich will entail a smart of abundant natural gas supplies.聽

As emphasized during the 2023 North American Leaders Summit (NALS), a shared strategy to develop this vital realm is . Yet Mexico鈥檚 and near-absence on the global stage, as demonstrated under AMLO, will not be easy to dethrone. Worse still, long before AMLO's rise, Mexican authorities proved inadequate at elaborating a concise development strategy; this time, this could be enabled by tectonic, geopolitical changes. As previously , it is on Mexico if it fails to act on these once-in-a-generation nearshoring opportunities.聽

The reallocation of semiconductor supply chains closer to the U.S. market is not only about extricating away from China. It also represents a major opportunity for regional integration. Technological resilience and value-added manufacturing should be the focus of U.S. foreign policy in the Americas. All in all, a strategic approach to supply chain integration could be a powerful antidote for crude nationalism and , which, in the context of near-simultaneous elections in both countries next year, will be by political actors both in Washington and Mexico City.聽

About the Author

Gerardo Penchyna

Gerardo Penchyna Cardenas

聽Policy and Research Analyst and Non-Resident Fellow at the University of Guyana
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Mexico Institute

The Mexico Institute seeks to improve understanding, communication, and cooperation between Mexico and the United States by promoting original research, encouraging public discussion, and proposing policy options for enhancing the bilateral relationship. A binational Advisory Board, chaired by Luis T茅llez and Earl Anthony Wayne, oversees the work of the Mexico Institute.聽  Read more