澳门六合彩

In early February, President Biden announced that ISIS leader聽Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi was killed in a U.S. special forces raid in Syria. Qurayshi鈥檚 death is a critical flashpoint in the resurgence of ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Middle East, particularly in Syria where the political stalemate and unrelenting violence have generated, beyond incalculable internal suffering, regional threats from chemical weapons to Iranian missiles and extremist groups.聽

This expert discussion explored how U.S. and international goals in Syria, from eliminating the Islamic State and removing Iran鈥檚 strategic weapons to implementing the UN approach to the larger Syrian internal conflict, can best be achieved.

Selected Quotes

James Jeffrey

鈥淗alf the population, 12 million people, are either refugees or internally displaced persons, and many of the people in the areas that Assad still controls are suffering greatly. The other pressing problem is the continued resilience of ISIS pushed out of the cities, pushed away from having a state and an army, but still capable, as we saw in the recent attempted prison break in the Northeast, of launching significant sophisticated attacks.鈥澛�

Dana Stroul

鈥淒uring that speech (the Manama Dialogue), Secretary Austin also noted that ISIS remains a threat. Though that terrorist organization no longer holds territory in Iraq and Syria, it remains intent on reconstituting and continues to direct and inspire attacks on the region and beyond the region. He reaffirmed US commitment to retaining our forces in Iraq and Syria in an assistance capacity to support partner forces in their fight against ISIS. This, of course, is what the United States does best. We support the development of combat credible forces, we build international coalitions to address shared threats, and we deliver results based on the backbone of military support and contribution of forces and capabilities.鈥澛�

鈥淲e as a Department (the Department of Defense) are leaning into multilateral security cooperation to effectively deter against Iran and Iran-backed threats, violent extremist organizations like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, and other transboundary threats鈥� We support the State Department in implementing proactive diplomacy to reduce tensions and deescalate ongoing conflicts. We will continue to do this through defense diplomacy; steps to enhance information sharing; actions to develop shared air and missile defense; security cooperation and security assistance; and coalition maintenance.鈥�

鈥淭he administration鈥檚 approach to Syria is grounded in several essential priorities: expanding humanitarian access throughout Syria; preserving and maintaining our military presence and partnership with local partners (including the Syrian Democratic Forces) to maintain pressure on ISIS; making clear our ongoing commitment to demand accountability from the Assad regime; supporting basic international norms; promoting human rights and accountability (through the position of targeted sanctions); and sustaining local ceasefires across the country to keep violence at the lowest levels at the outset of the conflict.鈥�

Joby Warrick

鈥淲e鈥檙e at an inflection point with regard to the Islamic State, for reasons that we鈥檝e all seen. This is the year where ISIS tried to go big with a massive attempted prison break at Hasakah鈥� this was the most ambitious and most elaborate operation that we have seen from the Islamic State anywhere since at least 2017鈥� And, of course, it was also a year of great setbacks, most notably the loss of the Caliph, Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi. [He] was the second caliph to be killed in three and a half years and he was met with almost precisely the same fate as his predecessor, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.鈥澛�

鈥淲hat I鈥檓 curious to see is how this balance of power changes because of Russia鈥檚 involvement in Ukraine. I think that it鈥檚 early but I鈥檓 wondering if eventually we鈥檒l see a shift in emphasis or a shift in military deployments because of the Ukraine situation鈥� I don鈥檛 see them really mustering any sort of will to really force the Russians to leave鈥β� I think that they are more entrenched now than they have ever been historically.鈥�

鈥淚llicit commodities like Captagon, which has become this booming industry, in Syria, supported by elements of the Syrian regime鈥� some members of the Assad family, and to some extent, Iranian military united and personnel who鈥檝e taken a role in the distribution of these drugs. We see these... seizures of Captagon coming from Syria, sweeping across the Jordanian border, and spurring fights along the border... These kinds of relationships are springing up organically and they鈥檙e helping entrench Iran鈥檚 interest on a personal level and on a corporate level.鈥�

Oula Alrifai

鈥�90% of Syrians live in poverty today. At least 60% of Syrians are food insecure. Thousands and thousands of people鈥� are continuing to face bombing and Assad attacks on their homes and on their communities. Millions and millions鈥� of Syrians are displaced and the estimated numbers are half of the Syrian population鈥攏ot just official numbers. So, it鈥檚 actually worse than that. So, there are more than 9 million internally displaced Syrians, there are probably close to another 10 million Syrians displaced as refugees in Turkey, in Jordan, in Lebanon, and in other countries around the world.鈥�

鈥淭his is the lives of Syrians; this is the lives of people who have been experiencing this dictatorship for over 50 years and we see today that Russia has the upper hand when it comes to negotiations in the international arena鈥� Iran, they are strongly backing the Assad regime and the story continues at the expense of the lives of Syrians.鈥澛�

鈥淲hat鈥檚 happening on the ground is complicated when it comes to the Iranian presence, and I really encourage everyone to read my study that was published at the Washington Institute last year, in the service of ideology and Iran鈥檚 soft power in Syria鈥� A simple example, if you have no food, no water, and no shelter, and you need to provide those for your children then a Shiite clerk comes to you and says: 鈥業鈥檒l give you those services, I鈥檒l give you those resources, just say that you convert to Shiite Islam.鈥� What do you do? If you want to protect your children and keep them covered from a bombing then you have to say 鈥榦kay, I want to survive.鈥� That鈥檚 what鈥檚 happening in Syria.鈥�

Event summary

US defense strategy in Syria

The Department of Defense鈥檚 current priority list emphasizes the importance of regional stability, local partnerships, and countering ISIS鈥� influence in the region. DASD Dana Stroul argues that integrated deterrence and multilateral security cooperation tactics make up the blueprint for DOD鈥檚 engagement with the Middle East. The DOD also remains committed to supporting the State Department鈥檚 proactive diplomacy efforts to deescalate ongoing conflicts through defense diplomacy, increased information sharing, security cooperation, and coalition maintenance.

The DOD鈥檚 priorities in Syria include, 鈥渆xpanding humanitarian access throughout the country, preserving and maintaining a military presence with local partners including the Syrian Democratic Forces to maintain pressure on ISIS, [and] making clear their ongoing commitment to demanding accountability from the Assad regime,鈥� DASD Stroul notes, in addition to 鈥渟upporting basic international norms, promoting human rights and accountability through the imposition of targeted sanctions, and sustaining cease-fires across the country.鈥� She stresses the shift in tactics is not a diminishment of US commitment in the region, but rather a way to invest in the US鈥檚 partners on the ground.

The state of ISIS in Syria

According to Joby Warrick, 鈥淲e鈥檙e at an inflection point with regard to the Islamic State, for reasons that we鈥檝e all seen. This is the year where ISIS tried to go big with a massive attempted prison break at Hasakah鈥� this was the most ambitious and most elaborate operation that we have seen from the Islamic State anywhere since at least 2017.鈥� Despite this, ISIS also faced setbacks, including the death of their leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, the second caliph to be killed in three and a half years. Qurashi promoted communication with both local ISIS branches and global affiliates in Africa and Afghanistan 鈥� Warrick argues the new caliph will likely follow in those footsteps.

ISIS鈥� preference for splashy attacks, like the Hasakah prison break, might not have been successful, but allowed ISIS to portray itself as powerful, capable, and relevant. At the same time, Warrick predicts that the use and development of chemical weapons seems more likely in the coming years.

The Enduring Humanitarian Crisis in Syria

As moderator Ambassador James Jeffrey noted, 鈥淗alf the [Syrian] population, 12 million people, are either refugees or internally displaced persons, and many of the people in the areas that Assad still controls are suffering greatly.鈥� Oula Alrifai resists the argument that the US鈥檚 should prioritize regional security through diplomatic and political mechanisms, as this is often at the expense of the Syrian people. The international community鈥檚 failure to limit Russia and Iran鈥檚 influence in Syria, as well as their relations with the Assad regime, has had an enormous humanitarian toll. Syrians, 鈥渉ave been experiencing this dictatorship for over 50 years and we see today that Russia has the upper hand when it comes to negotiations in the international arena鈥� Iran, they are strongly backing the Assad regime and the story continues at the expense of the lives of Syrians.鈥�