澳门六合彩

Latin America's economies were on shaky ground even before the devastating impacts of the听coronavirus, following听a听synchronized economic slowdown last year amid falling global commodity prices. In December, the UN's听Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean听projected average growth in the region of just 1.3 percent for听this year, and warned about rising risks of "economic and social stagnation." Despite generally low inflation and high international reserves, the region's governments appeared听ill-equipped to respond to rising social demands such as those expressed in massive street protests last year.

Today, the panorama is far worse.听As a听pandemic paralyzes economic activity worldwide, it is kneecapping global trade and cratering commodity prices. The economic slowdowns in the United States and听China will be particularly perilous for the region's听major exporters, such as听Mexico and听Chile. A collapse in tourism, meanwhile, has deprived Argentina of one of its few economic bright听spots, as the country struggles to avoid default. Goldman Sachs now forecasts recessions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, with zero growth projected for听Colombia and Peru.

Selected听Quotes

Cindy Arnson

鈥淭he economic effects on the region have been swift and brutal. The shrinking of global demand and an oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia have sent prices for the all-important commodity and oil sectors important for the region鈥rashing.听 This has crippled exports and trade that are critical to the region鈥檚 economic health.听 The tourism industry, which is a vital source of employment and foreign exchange in many countries, is essentially shuttered.听 Informal workers, about 50 percent of the region鈥檚 labor force, live day to day. They certainly don鈥檛 have the luxury of telework, and many of them are outside their country鈥檚 social safety nets.鈥�

鈥淭he pain will be deep as a global recession gathers steam, devastating household incomes and eroding the region鈥檚 previous social gains.鈥澨�

Luis Alberto Moreno, President, Inter-American Development Bank

鈥淚 would say that perhaps Latin America is maybe two weeks or a week and a half behind what鈥檚 happening in the U.S.鈥�

鈥淚f you look at the curve, what you have is a very sharp increase in the curve in most countries in the region, in some countries more severe than others鈥he reality, as we all know, is this virus has no limits.鈥�

鈥淚n terms of the economic effect, this is, to me, one of the most severe questions for Latin America. We were already growing at very low rates. Fiscal balances today are very different than they were in the last financial crisis where鈥any countries in Latin America had a strong fiscal position鈥oday we are in a very different place.鈥�

鈥淥ut of emerging markets, you have huge outflows of capital unlike any other time, and this, of course, is making it very difficult for countries to begin to finance the immense needs that they have.鈥�

鈥淲e just don鈥檛 know how long this will last鈥ll countries are looking at supporting their social safety nets, increasing them, being able to get, certainly, to the most vulnerable, but this is going to include more than that.鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檙e in for a very, very dire kind of circumstance. Certainly our response, from the perspective of the IDB has been concentrating on initially what has to be around the health-related issues, but equally in the support that we can provide countries such that we can boost their social safety nets, and then, of course, everything around the small and medium businesses which represent over 60-70 percent of employment in Latin America.鈥�

鈥淭he name of the game, I think, beyond dealing with the health issues, is how to inject liquidity into Latin American economy, such that they can weather this immense challenge here that we鈥檝e never seen in the past.鈥�

鈥�

鈥淭he situation in the Caribbean is extremely dire. These are countries that largely involve tourism, and, as we all know, the travel industry is basically imploded in the sense that there is just the sheer numbers of people just not going to hotels and are not sure how long this will last. It鈥檚 very, very tough.鈥�

鈥淎t the moment, everybody is simply overwhelmed with their own country鈥檚 response.鈥�

Benjamin Ramsey, Executive Director, Latin America Research Group, J.P. Morgan

鈥淚 still feel like we鈥檙e shooting at a moving target.鈥�

鈥淲e came into the year, and again, this is the year where we had basically, since the fall of the commodity super cycle, we鈥檝e been struggling to find growth in Latin America. We only saw one-and-a-half percent growth for the overall region in Latin America at the start of this year. So, this is already sort of a disappointing outlook which was going to be dependent on basically a recovery from recession in Brazil and Mexico鈥e currently have, in terms of full 2020, expect a contraction of 1.2 percent at the regional level.鈥�

鈥淲e are going to have the depths of the crisis in the second quarter as the direct impacts play out, but we鈥檙e also still anticipating, this is really the unknown question about both the depth and the duration that we are still trying to wrap our heads around, if we will have some lift in the second half of the year as we are crossing our fingers and hoping, that dynamics will allow鈥ervice sectors鈥tart to find ways to operate again.鈥�

A lot will depend upon China鈥檚 recovery 鈥� 鈥淭he links to the region are important鈥�

鈥淲e currently now, in China, are expecting a 40.8 percent contraction in the first quarter. These are quarter-on-quarter annualized numbers, and that鈥檚 followed by a 57 percent recovery in the second, and then a 24 percent recovery in the third quarter.

鈥溾�he depth of this fall and then recovery in China are really something we鈥檝e never seen in any type of forecasting before鈥hat type of recovery could perhaps play into commodity markets and give the second half a better tone than the first half.鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檙e certainly not recovering all that lost output, and I鈥檇 still say we鈥檙e basically making some optimistic assumptions in terms of the recovery because of all the institutional shortfalls, the lack of fiscal and monetary space and, I鈥檇 say, difficulties, in terms of public health systems dealing with the crisis.鈥�

鈥淲e thought we鈥檙e going to see central banks being more cautious in terms of鈥olicies to stimulate, and we thought that there was going to be little fiscal space given these financing constraints, but we do see extraordinary times apparently calling for extraordinary reactions from the fiscal and monetary authorities.鈥�

鈥淲e can argue as to whether or not certain governments may be taking more seriously or less seriously social distancing, but I鈥檇 say that the economic authorities are basically viewing this as a generational crisis, and they are 鈥渦sing toolkits and throwing caution to the wind, and I think dealing with the consequences of those of the fallout after.鈥�

Katy Watson, South America Correspondent, BBC

鈥淚 think that鈥檚 what has been so interesting, is just how the leaders here are dealing with it. The region has a lot of different approaches鈥air Bolsonaro [Brazil] is still going strong on not making it a big deal, and he cares about the economy鈥攖hat was a big part of his campaign鈥攈e doesn鈥檛 want that to go pot, not that he has much control over that now, but it鈥檚 really put him in a difficult situation when you鈥檝e got the health authorities and Minstry of Health which is being seen as taking much more leadership on this issue鈥f course, there has been a lot of dissatisfaction in Bolsonaro鈥檚 leadership鈥he pot-banging. Every evening now, practically, there is some excuse to go out onto the balcony and bang those pots to say 鈥榦ut with Bolsonaro.鈥欌��

鈥淚 talked to a doctor the other day鈥he talked about the fact that this is an upper middle class problem, or has been. But there鈥檚 been wealthy Brazilians coming from abroad bringing the virus after their holidays, after the carnival, and getting treated in private hospitals. Up until now, that鈥檚 who kind of almost been contained, but of course, as the virus spreads, that will hit the poor.鈥�

鈥淭he first person to die in Rio [de Janeiro] was a domestic worker whose employer came back from Italy and didn鈥檛 tell the domestic worker that she had symptoms. A month later and that domestic worker is dead, and I think that is worrying.鈥�

鈥淐hile鈥檚 in a really difficult position because, of course, the referendum was set for April, now being pushed back to October. People are showing their anger with [Sebasti谩n] Pi帽era because they want Chile to be shut down like they鈥檝e seen in other parts of the region, so talking about protests on the streets, no, I think people are kind of feeling 鈥榥o, we need to shut down the country; we need to make sure the numbers don鈥檛 keep rising. So, it doesn鈥檛 mean that the demand that we saw late last year will go away. If anything, this is putting more pressure on Pi帽era鈥is popularity is not getting any better.鈥�